Aug 30, 2023

Broker Bernstein said in a research report that Grayscale's landmark win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) increases the likelihood the agency might approve all bitcoin spot ETF applications together.

Video transcript

The crypto market still reeling from what some are hailing as a landmark ruling where the SEC has to review its rejection of gray scales request to convert G BT C into a spot. Bitcoin ETF. Now there's a bunch of headlines out, there's a bunch of analysis out. Um Some are saying, hey, this doesn't guarantee that a spot. Bitcoin ETF is gonna happen. It just dictates that the SEC has to review its policies and what got them to the decision that they made regarding gray scale. But, but analysts are saying it may be likely that we'll see a spot of Bitcoin ETF emerge. And as we discussed yesterday, we may see a wave of them all approved at once such that the SEC isn't seen as giving preferential treatment to one applicant over another. So anyway, just a ton of uh analysis, conversation, thoughts, opinions about this big gray scale SEC thing from yesterday, the market is still very much talking about it, gonna toss it to Wendy for her thoughts. OK. So first and foremost, I don't like the Bitcoin ETF S anyway, shape or form, but I will grift along with them and I will make as much money as ethically possible just like the rich guys. Um But with that being said, I don't necessarily know if we're gonna get a Bitcoin spot ETF um approved in 2023 just because our government moves so, so slow. Um Another thing is that yeah, we might not get or the great, great skill might not be able to successfully transfer over GP TG BT C to a spot ETF because I do believe there are some other um um there, there's another um public servant entity that does need to approve it. I think it's sc but one of you guys, I'm sure know that information. But what I will say is that I do think that this is a big one for um crypto as a whole because we've just seen so many negative actions take place against our entire industry that is pretty much unjust at this time. And instead of the sec actually creating and um creating laws and regulations and helping kind of foster tech and innovation, they just kind of seem to enforce and use unlimited resource cof coff taxpayer dollars. Yours? Mine, your mom's all of it. I actually want to toss this too well and get your take here. Yeah, we had two very similar headlines but they were different in the opinion here. So we went from Bernstein talking about like, is this going to help the ETF and the headline decided, yes, it's going to and then we had the other one with the traders, the trade wars and it's that, no, we're not sure if this is going to happen, right? Like we don't know if the ETF is going to pass and that's because we're looking back at what the judge said and they're basically like, hey, sec, you didn't do this correctly. We don't like the disclosures. We don't like how you guys uh kick this ETF to decide. So we need to go back to the docket, go back to the books, restudy it. You have another comment period coming up, go through this again and tell us what you think about it and we'll see what the ETF uh decision is there. Of course, we're also looking at the numbers. I didn't see what they, uh came out this morning as I don't know if anyone on the show possibly has those percentages. But last time at the beginning of summer, uh Bloomberg was looking at if an ETF was going to pass and it was in a high double digit percentage chance that Bitcoin ETF would pass later this year and I assume it only be higher because of what's happening with this court case, Jen. All right. So there is a 45 day time frame here for the SEC to look over the filings and decide if they want to appeal if they want to reject for another reason or if they are going to allow gray scale to move forward with the conversion to this ETF quick disclosure that Grace and Coindesk are both owned by DC G. Um, I think what's interesting to me here is that, and I said this yesterday, the courts are disagreeing with the SEC. We have judges who are disagreeing with what the SCC is saying. We spoke about the NFTSEC lawsuit yesterday where, um, two out of five of the SEC commissioners didn't agree with the enforcement action and it just feels like things may not be going that well for Gary Gensler and maybe he's going to finally be forced to giving the industry some clarity. I think that this is good news. We had the chief legal officer from Grayscale on first mover this morning. He said the whole company is amped and they kind of look forward to paving the way for ETF S in the US. So I think good news all around. But like I always say, you know, we've had this in Canada for a long time. So I don't know if I can just be as excited as you guys. Yeah, I think the words that like the lawyers of crypto Twitter have been sconc in this one is that the SEC according to the judge acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner, so arbitrary and capricious. Those are the two words of the week that the judge is saying guys, you didn't really look at the, the, the Bitcoin Futures stuff is pretty much the same as the Bitcoin spot stuff. There's a lot of correlation there. You didn't really unpack that you're arbitrating, appreciates you have to go back and assess. So the ECF Watchers, the Bloomberg Guides will that you mentioned, they've upped their prediction to 75% likely to be approved by the end of this year and 95% likely to be approved by the end of 2024. So they're feeling pretty good it up about 10% points from their initial 65% likely that they posited after looking into their ETF crystal ball and reading the tea leafs. So, uh yeah, we'll see. But yeah, the market seems to think this is good, I guess Bitcoin sold off a little bit on the news. So there was a lot of hype and excitement sold off a little bit. Um But certainly still a bit of a tailwind for Bitcoin's continued growth and a little bit of a sample of approval potentially from the US regulatory apparatus. It's crazy, man. Didn't think we'd live to see the day when the old spot, Bitcoin ETF would be improved here in the US, but as Jen reminds us off, they got it up there, they got it up there in Canada. So that is what it is. It just, you know what I'm gonna, you know what? I don't like maple syrup. You don't, I'm just kidding. I was gonna say I was trying to, trying to give a clap back. Yeah, everyone go and get some maple syrup. It's delicious.

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