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Prediction Markets

Kamala Harris, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination after Joe Biden dropped out (Chris duMond/Getty Images)
Markets
Election 2024
Biden's Exit Spurs Record $28M Daily Volume on Polymarket as Election Enters Uncharted Territory
Bets on the U.S. presidential election winner rocketed past $300 million, while the punters have put $200 million in a market for the potential Democrat's nominee and $10 mill...
Kamala Harris, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination after Joe Biden dropped out (Chris duMond/Getty Images)
By Sam ReynoldsShaurya Malwa
Jul 22, 2024 at 2:42 p.m. UTC
Jul 22, 2024
Election 2024bidenJoe BidenPolymarketPrediction Markets
(Andrew Haimerl/Unsplash)
Technology
The protocol
The Protocol: Polymarket Feeds Political Junkies, With Nate Silver
In this week's issue of CoinDesk's blockchain tech newsletter, we look at the "alternative news source" that Polymarket's prediction-betting site has become.
(Andrew Haimerl/Unsplash)
By Bradley Keoun
Jul 17, 2024 at 6:13 p.m. UTC
Jul 17, 2024
The ProtocolPolymarketPrediction MarketsPredictionsMusic
Nate Silver will now reportedly work for prediction market Polymarket. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)
Finance
Polymarket
Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report
The crypto-based prediction market has taken more than $400 million in bets this year.
Nate Silver will now reportedly work for prediction market Polymarket. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)
By Oliver Knight
Jul 17, 2024 at 3:49 p.m. UTC
Jul 17, 2024
PolymarketPrediction MarketsElectionsUS ElectionsElection 2024
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: (L-R) Tucker Carlson, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican Vice Presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Markets
Election 2024
Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick
With a millennial running mate, the former president now has a 72% chance of retaking the White House, traders on the crypto-based prediction market are signaling.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: (L-R) Tucker Carlson, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican Vice Presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
By Marc Hochstein
Jul 16, 2024 at 3:32 p.m. UTC
Jul 16, 2024
Election 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarketTrumpUSUS Elections
LAUREL, MARYLAND (May 10, 2024) Director of the United States Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, speaks during the Secret Service Wall of Honor Ceremony at the James J. Rowley Training Center in Laurel, Maryland. (DHS photo by Tia Dufour)
News Analysis
Analysis
U.S. Secret Service Chief Probably Won't Be Fired, Polymarket Bets Signal
The shooting at Trump's rally created severe concerns with the Secret Service's planning. Plus: Another all-time high for Trump's odds of victory; bettors think BTC will conti...
LAUREL, MARYLAND (May 10, 2024) Director of the United States Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, speaks during the Secret Service Wall of Honor Ceremony at the James J. Rowley Training Center in Laurel, Maryland. (DHS photo by Tia Dufour)
By Sam Reynolds
Jul 15, 2024 at 1:25 p.m. UTC
Jul 15, 2024
AnalysisElection 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarket
BUTLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 13: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet during a rally on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Butler County district attorney Richard Goldinger said the shooter is dead after injuring former U.S. President Donald Trump, killing one audience member and injuring another in the shooting. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Markets
Election 2024
Trump's Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting
The former president, who was injured at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, now has a 70% chance of retaking the White House, according to traders on the crypto-based predic...
BUTLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 13: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet during a rally on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Butler County district attorney Richard Goldinger said the shooter is dead after injuring former U.S. President Donald Trump, killing one audience member and injuring another in the shooting. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
By Marc Hochstein
Jul 14, 2024 at 1:05 a.m. UTC
Jul 14, 2024
Election 2024Prediction Marketsmeme coinsPolymarket
The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)
Markets
Election 2024
Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President's Press Conference (Update)
The president said he plans to stay in the race but "it's important that I allay fears."
The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)
By Marc Hochstein
Jul 11, 2024 at 10:47 p.m. UTC
Jul 11, 2024
Election 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarket
Sen. JD Vance, right, with former U.S. President Donald Trump (Drew Angerer/Getty images)
Markets
Presidential election
Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance's Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket
Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 29% chance that the Ohio Republican will be former President Trump’s running mate, up from 14% a week ago.
Sen. JD Vance, right, with former U.S. President Donald Trump (Drew Angerer/Getty images)
By Helene Braun
Jul 8, 2024 at 8:49 p.m. UTC
Jul 8, 2024
Presidential electionDonald TrumpRegulationElection 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarket
PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: People are seen celebrating on the statue of Marianne on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties including the far-left wing party, La France Insoumise came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's legislative election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election, but first projections have shown an unexpected lead for French left wing alliance New Popular Front. (Photo by Remon Haazen/Getty Images)
News Analysis
Analysis
Prediction Markets and Polls Both Got the French Election Wrong
Plus: Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Biden's insistence he's staying in the U.S. presidential race; will ETH fall to $2,630?
PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: People are seen celebrating on the statue of Marianne on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties including the far-left wing party, La France Insoumise came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's legislative election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election, but first projections have shown an unexpected lead for French left wing alliance New Popular Front. (Photo by Remon Haazen/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Jul 8, 2024 at 2:03 p.m. UTC
Jul 8, 2024
AnalysisElection 2024ElectionsPrediction MarketsPolymarketKalshi
MADISON, WISONSIN - JULY 05: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by ABC, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with 'This Week' anchor George Stephanopoulos on July 05, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The president sat down with Stephanopoulos while on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a few days after a debate with former President Donald Trump. (Photo by ABC via Getty Images)
Markets
Election 2024
Biden's Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview
The president's chances of reelection languished at 11% and his probability of dropping out lingered around 64%, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market pla...
MADISON, WISONSIN - JULY 05: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by ABC, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with 'This Week' anchor George Stephanopoulos on July 05, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The president sat down with Stephanopoulos while on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a few days after a debate with former President Donald Trump. (Photo by ABC via Getty Images)
By Marc Hochstein
Jul 6, 2024 at 1:26 a.m. UTC
Jul 6, 2024
Election 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarket