Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance's Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket

Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 29% chance that the Ohio Republican will be former President Trump’s running mate, up from 14% a week ago.

AccessTimeIconJul 8, 2024 at 8:49 p.m. UTC
Updated Jul 15, 2024 at 7:26 p.m. UTC
  • Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who is pushing to revamp crypto regulation, has a 29% chance of becoming former President Donald Trump's running mate.
  • This is according to bets placed by traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.
  • Trump is expected to announce his pick for vice president next week, according to reports.

Sen. J.D. Vance, the Ohio Republican who is pushing to reform regulation of digital assets, has a 29% chance of becoming former President Donald Trump’s running mate, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

Vance's odds of being nominated for vice president by the GOP have more than doubled from 14% a week ago on the platform, which settles bets in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 with the U.S. dollars.

The "Hillbilly Elegy" author and venture capitalist now has the second-highest odds of getting the Republican veep nomination among 25 possibilities offered in a Polymarket contract that has garnered $65 million of bets. The leading bet, however, is that another man not listed among the choices will get the nod, with a 33% probability.

Traders can buy "yes" or "no" shares for each candidate. Each share pays out $1 in USDC if the prediction comes true, and zero if not, so the market price (29 cents for a "yes" share in Vance, for example) represents the probability of the forecasted outcome.

A separate "Republican VP nominee?" contract with $7.6 million in bets puts North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum in the lead among 14 possibilities with 30% odds. Four-year-old Polymarket's volume has gone gangbusters in 2024 amid enthusiasm for political betting ahead of the November U.S. election.

Trump is expected to announce his pick before or during the Republican National Convention, which will take place from July 15 to July 18. Other possible contenders are Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson as well as former contestant Vivek Ramaswamy.

According to reports, Vance as of Sunday had not been asked to be Trump’s running mate, and neither had Rubio.

Vance could be a popular choice among crypto industry participants given his efforts to advance legislation that would clarify the rules of the road for digital assets. The Senate Banking Committee member has been circulating a draft of a bill that would reshape how the U.S. regulates digital assets, according to a report by Politico.

Unnamed sources told Politico that the proposal is more crypto-friendly than the legislation passed by the House in June.

Edited by Marc Hochstein.

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Helene Braun

Helene is a New York-based reporter covering Wall Street, the rise of the spot bitcoin ETFs and crypto exchanges. She is also the co-host of CoinDesk's Markets Daily show. Helene is a graduate of New York University's business and economic reporting program and has appeared on CBS News, YahooFinance and Nasdaq TradeTalks. She holds BTC and ETH.