Aug 7, 2023

"The Crypto Trader" author Glen Goodman discusses his technical analysis of bitcoin (BTC) as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap remains stagnant around $29,000 and its price hasn't risen more than 4% in a single day since June 21.

Video transcript

Bitcoin remains stuck around $29,000 and it doesn't feel like moving. So what will it take to move it past $30,000? Well, joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is the author of the crypto, the crypto trader. Excuse me, Glenn Goodman. Welcome Glenn. Hello. You can call it the, if you like. I have no objection. But yeah, a crypto begins with ac it's not a, it's not a vowel. I think you have to go the I, you know, I, I don't know, English is such a weird language. It really makes no sense neither. Neither either either. II, I let's cool the whole thing off. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Um But let's not call off uh your technical analysis which, you know, you're, you're noticing that Bitcoin hasn't gone up more than 4% since June 21st. June 21st. I, it's August, I mean, the whole month of July, it didn't go up anything in a single day, more than 4%. Uh What's your short term outlook here for Bitcoin? Still gonna stick around 29,000. Do nothing all day. I'm not very impressed with Bitcoin to be honest because um you know, you'll remember where his mother is. OK. You remember we were talking, you know, months and months ago about the, the strong correlation that there was between the and P 500 Bitcoin. And, you know, we were following that for the best part of the year and, and that correlation is pretty much broken down and it's, and it's a bit depressing because obviously the S and P 500 all the other major stock indices, particularly the American ones, um, have been rising fairly strongly. You know, it's been a really good year for stocks. And, um, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto going practically nowhere. Yeah, that's my, uh, chart that I've drawn there. Uh, some lines on the screen there. Now, it's interesting because from a technical analysis point of view, people aren't quite agreeing with each other about where these lines should be drawn. This is my interpretation here. Sorry, you were saying something, Lawrence, it's a pennant, right? Uh higher lows as it. And yet the highs keep stuck around. What is that? Is that a $30,000 resistance there? You got there. It's about 32,000, right? That's the big resistance. And that's the line that people don't necessarily agree on. I think it's valid. It goes all the way back to, you can see there in uh what is it? April June 2022. Um, where there was, um, a sort of that was where the resistance was first established and we keep hitting against that same line. I don't think that that's a coincidence. I think that that's an important level for traders. And as you can see those, those two, yeah, as you say, a pennant, uh, or a flag, the, the two sort of, uh, lines going downwards in the short term that you can see there right at the end of the chart that's currently where we are now. Um Now, you know, I've drawn that big thick line to show the sort of the main trend line that we're currently sort of bouncing up against. Hopefully. Now, trend lines from a technical analysis point of view, you know, a lot of people who are, who are sort of amateurs in that field, think trend lines are very important. But classical chartists like me know that trend lines, trend lines exist to be broken. So if we do break through that, that strong blue line there, it's not the end of the world because the major support is, is the dotted line that I've drawn there that says support, which is down at 25,000. Uh That's the uh the main line that we broke out through uh some months ago, uh breaking a sort of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. And uh so that's the major line in the sand that we've drawn that needs to hold basically. So for all those guys who went out and bought at the top here uh at like 30 you know, at, at 60 something 1000. And they're looking at this and they're saying Glenn when Moon, um because they, you know, they, they, they told their moms and dads they were buying a Lambo and they cursed out everybody on, on Reddit and they said you don't know anything and their, their, their old uncle who bought S and P uh who bought the spy uh is doing better than they are. So when moon, if, if at all, I mean, like they, it, it breaks below that, that blue line. What happens? Like you said, not to worry if it doesn't break below 25. But what happens really? Well, if it does break below 25 then nobody can argue that in any sense of the word, we're in a bull market. OK? That's what happens if we break 25,000 until we break 25,000, you could still argue. Yeah. Looking at that chart that you've got up there that, you know, we had the bear market and this is possibly the beginning of a bull market. I find it hard to accept that interpretation because when you zoom out like that and just take a look at the chart, it doesn't exactly look wildly bullish, does it. But actually, you know, we've come a long way from almost hitting 15,000 to almost hitting 30,000. That is almost a doubling. Yeah, but you gotta show it with, with the logarithmic scale. And bro, you don't know anything, bro, bro. You're just like, you know, I, I, of course you do know, you literally wrote the book. Yeah. Well, look, somebody who wants to actually make money trading as opposed to just be right and you know, form their view and then stick to it through thick or thin. Those of us who actually want to make money trading, we have to have our eyes open, right? We don't just go, this is definitely a bull market or this is definitely a bear market. But most of the time, you just can't be that sure about it. You have to be a little bit on the fence like I am right now going, yeah, it looks kind of bullish but it's very worrying that it's not keeping up with the major though to be fair. The major indices are being held up mainly by a small number of uh big tech stocks, you know, the apples and the Amazons and the Microsoft and all of that. And, you know, they are quality in this day and age because they make profits and people are sort of seeing them as a bit of a safe haven. Whereas Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto are still seen as a little bit out there, a little bit more dangerous. So then going more in line with the majority of tech stocks that actually aren't doing that well. So, you know, the major indices are deceptive to some degree. They're making the whole uh stock market look more bullish than kind of, most of it is. So it's, as I say, crypto is more in line with, with most of it as in just kind of a little bit tentatively rising, but everybody's still a little bit scared. And as I say, if we break down below that 25,000 level, then I'm sorry, we're definitely not in a bull market anymore. So hopefully we can hold that line. Glen if we step away from some of the quantitative data and look at the qualitative. What event are you waiting for to break that line of resistance? You know, we have a spot, Bitcoin ETF uh possibly on the horizon. Some are saying more regulatory clarity might help uh bump Bitcoin. What event are you waiting for? Yeah, regulatory clarity is the one I'm waiting for. Oh Lord, it's important and you know, this, this story about who I would be. For example, that that's come through that people are, I guess panicking and withdrawing a lot of stable coins. Um and other exchanges, you know, with, there are so many problems b constantly being attacked by regulatory authorities and lots of suspicion being put on them. It's, you know, we need to know that exchanges are reliable and sorry we just do and you know, stock exchanges, nobody really worries about or is the New York Stock Exchange going to exist this next week, you know, nobody worries about that. Whereas in the crypto market, that's like one of our major concerns, which, which big exchange is not going to exist or is going to take our money away with it. And, you know, certainly in, in terms of uh institutions getting involved and so on, as you've probably noticed, they're sort of trying to bypass uh the the pure crypto exchanges and create their own ways of trading um that are based on traditional architecture. And I don't particularly like the idea of that either because we need a happy middle ground basically because the main stock exchanges are weighed down by acres of regulation, particularly in the States. Meanwhile, crypto operates at the other extreme, we need a happy medium of the sort that kind of Europe and the UK are experimenting with and playing with at the moment trying to bring, bring in regulations that aren't too onerous if we carry on down that road. And if America crucially goes down that road, then we'll be in a much healthier position for people to trust, investing in Bitcoin and crypto again because FTX I think really did knock the confidence of the world. All right, Glenn, thank you for joining the show. We're gonna have to leave that there. That was the author of the crypto trader Glenn Goodman.

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