Jul 31, 2023

Bitcoin briefly broke above $29,500 in the last 24-hours as investors await the upcoming U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Video transcript

Bitcoin is around hovering around 29,400. It is the honey badger of crypto because central banks raise rates. It doesn't care. Curve finance has an exploit. It doesn't care what does crypto care about. What does Bitcoin care about? Well, let's find out joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is to us investment analyst, Callie Cox, welcome, Callie Happy Monday. Happy Monday. Thanks for having me and you're right, Bitcoin is kind of acting like a honey badger. It really is. I mean, you know, but I, I do want to get to this, this whole thing about uh what, what happened here with curve because you know, $50 million drained uh in this latest exploit. Um tell us, walk us through the difference here. Um I, you know, it's obvious to us the difference between C five, central finance, centralized finance and D five decentralized finance. But for the average investor who's, who's looking to get into this, get into trading or, or um you know, want to know more about uh you know, should they be involved in D I explain to them the difference here and, and what kind of risks in each. Yeah, sure. So, I mean, first of all, centralized finance, finance versus decentralized finance is a choice. It's ultimately up to the investor on which side you want to take. Um And you can, you can try out both avenues uh to be very, very clear, but the thing you have to consider in decentralized finance and of course, we all know decentralized finance is basically um you know, financial protocols built off of the Blockchain not controlled by one party. Um The transactions are more focused between uh you know, in between one party without two parties, really without a facilitator. But the thing you need to consider is the fact that one centralized party does create a little more trust in the ecosystem and does provide you with, you know, certain barriers of protection and safety. Um but at the same time, you have to be able to trust that centralized party. So, I mean, when we think about centralized finance, that's traditional finance, um you know, a lot of centralized parties are the fed, you know, different governmental agencies. And while the idea of decentralization is, you know, alive and well here and there are, you know, reasons out there not to trust centralized parties, uh you know, security hacks, like what we're seeing or what we saw with curve just recently is one reason to, you know, maybe be a little wary or um maybe take into some considerations when it comes to investing or putting your money into decentralized protocols. So, trust, which was basically the underpinning of crypto seems to be a problem in crypto. That's what you're saying. I don't think it's a problem. It's just something that's come up as the good. The space has grown quite a bit. It's something that space needs to address, but it's not, I don't think it's insurmountable. So, uh well, speaking of uh insurmountable, let's look at uh the price of Bitcoin here. Uh because uh you know, we, I I tend not to look at these things, uh you know, patterns because everything is different. Like our Children, each one is a special, unique snowflake. Uh And that is what I am gonna say about of time when it comes when it comes to Bitcoin. Nonetheless, people look at calendars and they say August and September those two months are when, when Bitcoin goes through this like lull period, for whatever reason, I don't know what it is. Phases of the moon. Who knows? I it's not an issue as far as I'm concerned, but what does this mean? Yeah. So as you mentioned, we're kind of getting into the dog days of summer here and something you should consider if you are a crypto investor or a stocks investor is that people are going off to the beach, they're not looking at their portfolios or trading their portfolios. So trading volumes are probably going to be lower as we get into, you know, August and the beginning of September. And when that happens, when trading volumes are lower markets move a lot quicker and more inconsequential headlines. So you're right, Bitcoin seasonality, um, or you know, the seasonal patterns we see show that Bitcoin prices have been a little bit weaker in August and September. Uh, it's not necessarily a bad thing and you can definitely see, uh, trading volumes help a price if a good headline comes across the tape. Uh but it's something to be aware of. It's a reason to stick to your targets more and consider hedging your portfolio, especially if you're taking that vacation to the beach callie. I, you know, I think you don't know enough gens because they'll trade no matter what they don't care in at the beach. They don't, it's just nonstop trading. I don't know what you're talking about. Hey, if that's, if that's how you want to roll, I definitely support it. I lay off my portfolio when I go to the beach, but I know you're right. Uh So many people don't and he never sleeps. Ok. Kelly, you mentioned in your notes that the majority of us retail don't think we're in a bull market. You're saying a lot of people are expecting another big dip. Are you expecting that? What do you, what, what do you think? Yeah, I find this surprising and you know, this stat that I put in there comes from our Q three retail investor beat survey. Uh We survey 10,000 global investors basically asked them what they're expecting, what they're investing in, what they're worried about. And we asked them, you know, do you think that the S and P 500 in markets in general are in a bull market? And you know, when we're talking about a bull market, we mean just a period of uh you know, just considerably or consistently rising prices and 86% of investors said they don't think so. Um which is a shock to me because of course, if you look at the S and P, we're up, you know, 30% plus since the October lows and obviously Bitcoin is up quite a bit as well since its lows back at the end of 2022. So I think that shows that there's a lot of doubt in this rally, there's a lot of skepticism. And that could also, I mean, a lot of people on the sidelines, I do want to be clear though, I think Bitcoin is seen as a more quality, you know, safe haven asset within the crypto space. And it's benefited from the fact that there has been a lot of doubt about this rally and a lot of skepticism about the future. So it's interesting, we've actually seen speculative coins do better over the next past few weeks compared to Bitcoin. And that could be because the attitude is, you know, lifting a little bit. So, speaking of which Mike Novogratz, a guy who woke up one day and said, you know, it'd be a good idea. I'm gonna get a giant luna tattoo on my shoulder. What could possibly go wrong? So he said Larry Fink was the best thing to happen at Bitcoin uh this year. I, I mean, should I start worrying? Uh, well, I'll throw out what I say about bubbles and, you know, Fross uh all the time. You know, I don't think you can say that we're in a bubble or a frothy period until you're past it. People say that a lot in hindsight, but right now, I think the skepticism is a good sign. Uh The fact that again, people are sitting on the sidelines, um that, you know, people feel a little bit nervous when they're considering, considering their speculative trades and the fact that we're seeing speculation doesn't automatically mean, you know, prices have gone too far and we're preparing for a pullback. I mean, we're seeing economic data tick up with the, the tick up with the, um, you know, rallies we've seen in both stocks and Bitcoin as well. Uh which I think is an encouraging sign and I, you know, people are just recalibrating their portfolios slowly to realize that, you know, we could be past uh this economic worry and these recession worries. I'm not saying for good, nobody knows what the future holds. But, you know, I, I think that investors have been a little too pessimistic and now they're slowly moving their way to the other side. I don't know if I'm a pessimist, but I definitely want to chart the tattoos on Mike Norad's body and to see if there's a way to short everything that's on there. I think you could do that for your next segment. Lawrence. I would love that. Great idea. Yeah. Take a bunch of weird photos of him. See, you know what logos he's got and just go the other way. All right, Kelly, on that note, we are going to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining the show this morning. It was a pleasure seeing you again. Yeah. Thanks for having me. That was it to us investment analyst at Cali Cox.

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