Nov 20, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $37,000 earlier on Monday, after pro-bitcoin candidate Javier Milei won the presidential election in Argentina.

Video transcript

Bitcoin broke above $37,000 earlier today following pro Bitcoin candidate Javier Mile winning the presidential election in Argentina. Joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is three IQ head of research Mark Connors. Welcome, Mark. Hey, thanks for having me on Lawrence. Good to see you and Jen. Not, not at a loss for information over the weekend. Huh? To talk about. No, not at all. Um So I is uh he, he's uh he's not talking about going uh full um uh El Salvador here. I'm making Bitcoin legal tender, but he does want to um go, I guess Andrew Jackson and get rid of the central bank. Anyway, what do you think? Um is Bitcoins a rally today anywhere related at all to what's going on in Argentina or is that just people saying? Yeah, let's, let's just assign that to, to why prices are up. Well, you know, there's two things, there was uh Altman ejected and Mile elected. So if you had to choose between the two, I'd go with the president elect Javier Mile and yeah, it was. But Lawrence, I think the news was positive over the weekend. It's obviously not going to be, as you said in El Salvador situation. It's a, he's first gonna dismantle per his platform, the central bank. He's a reformist. Uh whether people call him a Peronist. Uh you know, he runs on a libertarian platform. He's an anti peronist. He's sorry, he says anti Per Yes. So, so I think what it's informing on is the state of politics which is still there's polarity because the people aren't happy with what's going on. And in, in Argentina, right, 100 and 40% inflation uh you know, obviously it's tough to run a business or, or store wealth at that. So what I'll say about him is I don't think that Mile is, is doing a uh platform du Jour, he's done the work, he understands money and whether he dismantles or addresses the central bank, there's going to be change in Argentina. And Argentina's GDP is multiples larger than El Salvador. So, although they are, they are a hot mess on the world stage of G 20 they're a big economy. So if they do integrate Bitcoin anyway, it'll have a bigger impact in El Salvador. I, yeah, I mean, again, it's, it remains to be seen because uh he's sort of taking, doing an experiment here. But then again, I, I don't know, the central bank of Argentina hasn't done a great job to say the least. Uh they failed several times in, in Argentina's history. Uh And they also failed even trying to keep the peso in line with the dollar many, many years ago. Uh So it's not like it's a, it's a, it's a temple of brain power there in Buenos Aires when it comes to centralized banking. But that said, let's kind of, let's move on a little bit here, uh, to volatility and I kinda le let's walk through, you have a few charts here. Some of them, I understand. Some of them, I admit I don't, but this first one, it's a really, really long term view of Bitcoin volatility going back since the beginning of time, otherwise known as the beginning of the last decade of the previous decade. Um which is when roughly when Bitcoin started trading and you're looking at 63 day uh volatility which um the kids at home might not realize that's sort of close to 90 days, isn't it? Um So what are we, what are we looking at here other than a, a trending downward uh move in Bitcoin? So you're looking at the trending down and if you had to put another or another chart against it, um you would say a couple of things, you'd say the price went up. So that volatility isn't a problem. A volatility just says that it's changing rapidly away from what's what's expected. Volatility is the degree of certainty. People love low volatility because they want certainty, but be careful what you wish for because right before something dies or its volatility goes to zero because it just flat lines. What we see here is volatility at 30% on a, as you said, 90 day basis of calendar days. It tells about the opportunity of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is growing with adoption. But what's happening here is it's growing in a pattern of as it gets goes from $10 to $100 to 1000 to 10,000 to, you know, whatever and we think will be over 100,000. Its volatility decreases because it now becomes, you know, a big girl and a big boy coin, it becomes something that has a mass of half a trillion to a trillion and we think $10 trillion. So this is as it declines, it's entering the stage of a global asset. Now, I don't know if you have the other chart about what's happening to our Treasury volatility, which is the store of value, what everyone relies on. But that volatility is going. Yeah. Well, we can speak to it. That trend is going up. You know, we had a failed auction, almost a failed auction. Um We have less people attending us auctions. We have a 20 year today because there is more of this stuff, Lawrence and Jen coming down the pike and it, it goes back to what mile is gonna do. He may not do Bitcoin right away but he knows that what the central bank is doing is bad for the people, 40% poverty. We're seeing it here too. The difference between the wage earner and the asset owner has only increased in, uh in its gap as we know, you need, you know, eight incomes to buy a house for a family where it used to be two back when dollar to peg from golden 71. So the volatility is a great entry point because it, it, it debunks what people think that Bitcoin has higher value. No. Bitcoins vol is decreasing and the old money treasury volatility is increasing and it's the problem. So that's one of our main focus is the three legs of our investment stool uh for, for Bitcoin is that there still is a problem in traditional finance and it's terminal now taking into consideration what you've just said. And the election in Argentina, what kind of impact do you expect to see on the markets uh moving into next year? So the global South is the Petri dish for Bitcoin and for any monetary innovations because they need it. Uh We still live on the largesse of, of having the dollar be the global reserve. Everyone needs to trade in it although it's declining a little bit. So we're not feeling the degree of inflation or the basement in any dollar or dollar related asset. Um So I don't think Mile is going to drive anything. It's more of a, a symptom what it does speak to. I don't know if you gave me a lay up on this about the election in the US. But there is polarity. So we are still feeling even though we don't have the inflation degree of inflation that Argentina has. We have it on the asset side. You know, the CP I and PP I are lower but housing prices aren't better, insurance isn't better. College tuitions aren't better and wages have gone down as inflation has gone up. So I think you're going to have a pretty nasty election um uh narrative this year. It's going to be as polarized as it was in 2020 16. Um And hopefully folks like your outlet can still keep the uh narrative fact based which I think you guys do uh and give information as opposed to, you know, opinions and uh that's one of our only hopes is, is just to keep the conversation civil uh at, at least we'll try. So, so that's what I think Argentina's election. It's a symptom of the polarity that exists because of inflation and debasement of currencies globally, not just Argentina.

Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to to register and buy your pass now.