Nov 14, 2023

U.S. inflation data for October was better-than-hoped, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) flat for the month versus economist forecasts for a rise of 0.1%.

Video transcript

New us inflation data is out as of today. The consumer price index was unchanged in October after increasing 0.4% in September despite being unchanged for the month. AC P I did increase 3.2% from a year ago. That's much better than was a year ago. That's for sure. Joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is stock chart dot com. Senior technical analyst Julius dear. Welcome back, Julius. Thank you, Lawrence. Glad to be here. Good seeing you. So we have you, you sent us a whole bunch of charts but we can only, we only have time for like two or three of them. Uh Let's get to the first one. You, you have a Bitcoin weekly chart. Um You see a potential break up to the $45,000 level. That's pretty, pretty, pretty good talk to us about that. What, what's going on here? Yeah, first of all, I'd like to give you some options so you can pick and choose what you want to talk about. That's one thing and then the other thing is following up on the former segment. The only thing since you were talking about it. The only thing I can think of is like, I hope that the guy who filed that fake report was out in time. I mean, he literally had like 30 minutes to cash out. So that's a good thing. I think when you plan that much, you, yeah, you probably had some time to do it, but uh hopefully catch him. Well, the, the, the going in is probably all right, but the getting out is how long will it remain under wraps that it is fake? You know. So he literally had 30 minutes. So there you go. Um The breakout in, in, in Bitcoin is much more substantial and it's real. Um And I think if I look back at the times that we spoke here, uh I, at some stage, I, I felt like getting really bored because it was always like, hey, look at that resistance around 30 K, it's 31 it's 32 it's 30 K and every time there was this massive over at resistance and every time market failed to, uh to break higher. Uh So a couple of weeks that ended, um with a uh uh a rapid and a solid break above that resistance area which I've shaded in on, on the chart there, there's a two dotted lines around 30 k. What I've learned is in Bitcoin. It's never a, it's never a, like a fixed round number. It's always a AAA bit of an area where support and resistance comes in. And you can see that we're now holding up above that breakout level for 34 weeks already, which is, which is pretty solid. And the number that you're uh mentioned as uh what I gave you as a, as a potential target is coming from. It's actually two things. One line I didn't draw in, I see on the chart right now, that's the, the level around 25 K. That's where we also had a bit of a, you know, a couple of bounces back in 2022. And then when it broke, after it broke in 2023 we had two lows in that area. So we got that support. Correct. That's exactly exactly. That's what I'm saying. So that happened with 25 K and it's now happening with 3031 K. But what's more important is the, what you, what you may do when a market trades in those ranges and all of a sudden it breaks, there is kind of a rule of thumb that you can gauge the attempt of the breakout by projecting the height of the range on top of the breakout. So we had that 25 let's say 25 to 3031 range where it broke, that gives us like 3536 is which where we're currently at. If you take the, the, the, the broader range which, which ran between, let's say 15 and 3031. Um That's a 1516 K range. And when you project that on top of the breakout level, you're coming in that 4546 area and where I've got that green shade, not algorithmic, correct, not logarithmic rather, you're not, you're not using log log charts here on this one. No, on this one. No, but I mean, if you do, if you, if you do it on this one and you would take percentages, it would be pretty close to where we are looking at. Uh It's not that much of a difference. Um I don't know, there's, uh there's no hard rule. I mean, for crypto, if, if you go back longer, I would certainly uh prefer to use a lock chart uh for these moves right now, it gives you a lot more visibility on because the, the moves are bigger. So it's, it's easier to see the levels because when you put them on a lock chart, they all got very narrow at the top. Um So that's why I'm doing it. But the, the levels and the target levels, especially when they're horizontal doesn't really matter. There is definitely some resistance in that 4546 area where you see uh those two highs going back to uh early 2022. So all in all from this, this longer term weekly picture, I think uh Bitcoin is on a roll we're in for a new uh move higher and that old area, as you rightfully mentioned, uh 30 31 32 that's, that's now gonna be a very solid support level. So if we see some declines in that area, I think it's a new buying opportunity. Julius, you and I have something in common. We were both bored for quite a while, so I'm glad you could join us when there's some excitement. Let's, let's take a look. Let's take a look now at the relative rotation graph. This takes a look at the 10 largest coins by market cap. Talk to us about what you're seeing soul link. They've really been in the news lately. They've been making the headlines and Matic and ad A are also included here. Yeah. So what I did here is I put the sort of 10 largest uh coins by Market cap and I know they vary. So this list is probably like a week or two weeks old. I don't know. Um But it gives you a good sense of uh which old coins are worth looking at because at the center of the chart here is Bitcoin. So we're looking at all these coins relative to Bitcoin and when they move in a what I call a RRG heading, which is a heading between zero and 90 degrees. Think in terms of a compost. Um That's good and you can see the two green tails inside the leading quadrant. Those are um chain link and SOLANA. They are definitely doing that. They're doing that for a while already. Uh And they're, they're still in good shape. And if you look at those charts, those individual charts, you will see that they have been, they, they broke from a very large base and are, are now making their way higher. Uh The shorter term picture suggests that there could be a little bit of uh of a dip going on or, or at least a pause in the rally. But this longer term rotation certainly suggests that these two are, are in good shape. And then in inside the improving quadrant, those are uh lagging behind what's happening uh in uh chain link and Solana, uh we've got Mati and uh Ara Cardano, those are uh also in that 0 to 90 degree heading and uh they are looking really good. So they're in the uh a little bit earlier stages of their move. So probably likely more potential with less risk than what's going on in, in Solana and chain link. So, uh out of this chart, I will definitely keep an eye on the, on the green ones, uh Chain link and Solana because they are doing really well. Uh But Matik and uh Cardano are really on the map for uh for more upside. Yeah. So that it's interesting you say that, I mean, uh because we had uh Katie Stockton on uh earlier yesterday, I think it was yesterday. All the days blur uh similar rotation graph, similar comments about uh uh chain link and uh and uh and solana that they were in it she showed, of course they were in the green quadrant, outperforming Bitcoin. But I mean, is this, is it too late for those guys? If you, if you're coming in, you would, you would say to try out Matic and, and uh what was the other one? Matic? And uh Cardano? Yeah, I mean, if you, if you had to, if you had to put a bet, where would you go? Yeah. So first of all, Katie is using the same charts. They are RRG charts. I, I created them and she's using them uh in other software, but it's the same, it's the same setup, same chart. So I'm not surprised she's using it. Um I would, I would, I would probably spread out over Ada and Mati and by the way, this is a weekly chart. So you're looking at really long term trends. I'm not sure what Katie was using, maybe she was using daily. So you will get a different picture. But from this, from this set up, I would, I would uh prefer Kana Matik over uh chain link and Solana because they, there is less risk. It's all about risk and reward and, and chain link and Solana have already made quite a bit of a move where Mati and, and Kano uh still have more potential upside with less downside risk. It's all about risk reward. So when, when you, when you're, when you're trying to invest on one of these or, or, or play one of these uh quadrant charts, you want to go from blue to green, that's kind of where you wanna be. So you wanna go, I, I just sort of want to explain it to people who are watching that. Like those are very pretty colors. I don't know what, I don't know what to make of it. But you're saying you want to go someplace when your goal is to go from blue to green, you want to be in the blue as it goes to green. Is that correct? Um Well, first of all, it's not, it's not like there's not trading rules. I mean, I always, I get, I get this a lot and I, I counter it like, what would be your trading rule on a, on a regular bar chart or can chart? It's different for everybody. Somebody wants to trade a five day breakout. Other people want to trade a 50 day breakout. Rrgs are not different. Um As a rule of thumb moving from improving to leading. So from blue to green is where you got your track change. Um And by looking at the heading, which is the direction of the tail, you can try to pick up those turning points in an early phase. And that's where Matik and Kana now are when you're inside leading you, you are already in a relative uptrend, you are already in a relative uptrend versus Bitcoin. Um And that is likely to continue because trends are usually uh more prone to continuing than turning around. So that, that is, it's, it's a, it's a higher level overview and the big advantage is that it'll give you the ability to look at all those trends in one image instead of having to flip through all these individual charts. And, and again, this is all versus Bitcoin. This isn't versus US dollars. So they, so your short Bitcoin long, these ALTs in those situations, they, they, they all could be going up. But in you, you're talking about relatives. Absolutely. You got it because when I, I can run this chart against No, no, no, you're absolutely right because when you run this chart against the US dollar, guess what will happen in this market, they will all move into that. They're all shooting off into the leading quadrant because they're all going up, they're all strong. So you won't get any different shader. Uh I'm putting, putting them again, gives you the best of the best. So to say so, Bitcoin is a benchmark and we're looking for stuff that's outperforming in this case, the Bitcoin benchmark. All right, Julius, thanks so much for joining the show. It was a pleasure having you on again. My pleasure and talk to you soon. Thank you. That was stock charts dot com. Senior Technical analyst, Julius de Campana.

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