Oct 18, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC)'s price flirted with $29,000 earlier today, after Fidelity amended its spot bitcoin ETF filing.

Video transcript

The state of crypto is presented by Tron connecting the world to the power of Cryptocurrency. Bitcoin came oh, so close to breaking above $29,000 early today after Fidelity amended its spot Bitcoin ETF filing. This comes after Blackrock Ceo or as Blackrock Ceo, Larry Fink told Fox Business that clients across the globe are talking about the need for crypto. Joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is Maple head of growth and capital markets. Quinn Thompson. Welcome back, Quinn. Thanks for having me. Glad to see you again. Ok. So let's look at this whole thing about these ETF uh filings and some of the changes uh that, that happened with the filings. First of all, what is this telling us about the demand for a spot ETF and what would, what would uh and a spot ETF uh volume look like if it is a success, what would deem it a success or failure? Yeah. Well, uh let me just start by saying it's huge. You know, Blackrock JP Morgan Barclays, Fidelity Franklin Templeton, the significance of those names uh is pretty large and, and there are all the firms that have been mentioned alongside crypto headlines in the past week or Blockchain and you compare that to 12 to 18 months ago and, and the names that consume crypto headlines are all now bankrupt. So this is what I would consider a new leaf being turned over and given that the SEC chose not to appeal the gray scale uh court loss district uh court loss last Friday. Uh this upcoming Friday on the 20th, that mandate will be released uh basically putting the ruling into effect. And so, you know, Fink and, and all these other kind of top Wall Street firms would not be voicing these public opinions. If the SEC were going to deny their ETF applications, you just blackrock and Fidelity, they just don't put the reputation on the line like that. And so, uh I think it's a hugely positive sign the SEC is in active dialogue, providing feedback on the applications. We've seen a number of res submissions already and you know, due to past scars, the crypto ecosystem still doesn't quite want to price it in. We saw that on Monday with, with the uh fake headline. But yeah, I think I mentioned last time the, the, the ETF the spot ETF is a conduit that that allows better access to Bitcoin, but you still need those catalysts. And I actually think we're, we're coming up on, on that and you'd look back to the March banking crisis earlier this year if Bitcoin had a spot. ETF maybe that 10% move would have been 2025. Who knows when, when all the regional banks went down. So I think it, it, it does a lot for the space. Uh what, you know, getting back to, to part of my original question though. We saw the, uh Ether ETF s the Ether Futures ETF and, you know, again, those weren't spot, but their first few days of performance were very lackluster that I think the first day was a co like under 2 million in total volume across the nine ETF s that, that hit the market. What number if I, if I'm sitting here and I'm, I'm, I'm playing, you know, I'm playing armchair football. You know, I, I if I'm playing fantasy football here, but with ETF S, what number would be a success in uh in the, let's say the first week or let's say assets under management volume, what criteria would I use to say, a spot ETF when it launches spot ETF S when they launch our successes or failures? So it's, you have to take into account that uh the Greyscale Trust today has almost $20 billion in assets already. So assuming that gets converted to an ETF right away, I I predict that will be kind of the frontrunner just given the, the liquidity head start. It has. And as we've seen with the gold ETF GGLD and IAU investors will pay a slight premium for that extra liquidity, it's hard to measure on day one. Let's say, you know, if the Bito futures at the peak of the market had a billion dollars in flows day one, I think, you know, given where we're at in the cycle and cryptos not on everybody's tip of their tongue, you know, 500 to a billion uh would be a hu a huge success day one. But I think the, the real impact is going to be uh you know, over the 36, 12 months following where there's just this passive drift uh as, as funds flowing. So, you know, the flop, let's say, you know, 50 to 100 million of new money might be a flop. Um 2 50 million day one would be good. But, you know, I think over, you know, a week, one month, three months is, is probably a better time to measure it. And, and see Quinn, the last time you joined us, you touched on the strength of interest rates and commodities. What are your expectations for the rest of the year? Yeah, I, I actually think they cool off a bit here. Um You know, there's probably still some complacency across the investor base though. Uh think of it this way, 50% of total US dollars were created in the past three years. And, and then when you look at TLT which is the long duration Treasury ETF uh it peaked at 100 and $70 in 2020 it's now trading at 85. So exactly 50%. Um, so I think, you know, there's, there's a lot of headwinds for long duration bond investors, but I think we're kind of approaching this point where governments can't really let the interest rates, you know, go much higher than 5%. To me it's a, it's sort of a soft line in the sand that they've drawn and they need to kind of talk it back. We've seen the dollar pull off. Uh We've seen oil kinda weaken as, as, you know, the US trying to bring those prices down. And, and to me, I think, uh you know, going into the seasonal November, December months with investors underweight equities and still overweight cash and fixed income, um I think it could be a pretty, pretty risk on moment for, for assets. And you said you expect gold and Bitcoin to outperform unpack that for us. Yeah, for sure. So, you know, looking even to like the March banking crisis, uh you know, I mentioned you need these types of catalysts and we've seen a lot of headlines on, on wars, the U S's participation but, but di diving into what that really means and, and why is a few numbers? So in just over a year, uh since the Ukraine War, the US has spent 100 and 13 billion about in spending and to give you perspective that's 2.5 times the, the NASA budget that's over 16% of uh, the 2008 Tarp bailout where they be bailed out the whole banking system. And it's more than the annual budgets for the Department of State, the Department of Justice, the Department of Interior. So when you start to add, you know, oh, it might be just a smaller, you know, war or conflict, but Israel's a much closer ally, you know, it's just continuing to add up these, these spending initiatives that the government is taking on in a time where they already are deficit spending and, and spending above their means. So, like I said, I think you get to this point um where there's, you know, a little too much volatility in the bond market, interest rates are going too high and, and policymakers, Janet Yellen at the treasury and, and Paula, the fed will very closely be forced to step in and, you know, some sort of yield curve control or support for the bond market and providing liquidity before you know, rates or inflation expectations become unanchored. And I think uh that's when you really see similar to March and earlier this year, the, the Gold and Bitcoin take off. All right, Quinn, we're going to have to leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us again and sharing your perspective. Yeah. Thanks for having me take care. That was maple head of growth and capital markets, Quinn Thompson.

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