Sep 28, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering just below $26,500 after trading mostly sideways in September.

Video transcript

This is some of the lowest volumes. In fact, according to some estimates, the lowest volume we've seen in Bitcoin in the past five years, it can't get more boring than this or will it get interesting? Well, joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is stock charts dot com. Senior technical analyst, Julius Diar Julius. Hello. Good morning Laurence. Good morning. So, uh I'm looking at a bunch of charts you gave uh that you gave us here and let's take a look at the, the we have a AAA long term chart going back to uh to the beginning of the decade 20 20. Uh And you could see this here, boy, are we compressed, aren't we? Yeah, you already said it boring. I mean, there's nothing, well, at least in, in, in crypto terms there is uh there's almost nothing going on. It's flat. If you look at that long term Bitcoin chart that is trading between 25 and 31. And I think at least the last 23, maybe even four times that I was on your show. We've been talking about that 25 K barrier and 31 on the top side and it's still there. Uh, market is, is remains in that range, testing the bottom, testing the top. We recently tested that lower area and it looks as if we're on the way up, got to be careful, but it looks as if we're now again on the way up. But, but we still remain in that range. And that is it. I, I mean, it shouldn't last too long, I think, I mean, if you really, I, my, my baseline scenario is for Bitcoin to move higher and to eventually move past that 31 32 barrier. But it has to happen at some stage. If you, if you remain um suppressed and under that barrier, it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger and more difficult to break it. So I'd like to see Bitcoin move higher and past that 32 K level in the next. Let's be careful here 6 to 8 weeks because otherwise it'll really become um much, much more difficult and we're really stuck in the sideways range. I, I mean, I hate to say it, but, uh, mentally, I look at that chart and I'm drawing a pennant uh from the beginning of 2023. And, uh, that make, that means that, um, it could go really bad though. Right. Oh, if we, if we sink below 25 K, that is really, that's, that's bad news. That is certainly bad news. I mean, because, um, there are a few previous lows that could act as support. But I think that the, um, the more serious one is between 17 and 18, that's that little, you know, we've touched that a few times in 22 and that started at 23. Uh, but the real, the real dangerous for a move to, uh, way below 15, I think, like 12.5, that's that, you know, the lowest dotted line that you see there, that is a major breakout level that we had back. Speaking of dangerous, we take a look at that Bitcoin E chart, right? That's the, the price of Bitcoin in E terms, correct. That's right. Uh I'm sorry, the price of E in Bitcoin terms. Let's let's let's doesn't really matter. Yeah, it's uh it, it's a, it almost looks like a spine what's going on here. It, it looks when I, when I, when I brought up this chart, I I couldn't help myself and think about a patient in a hospital on a monitor and he's dying, he's like going flat, there's nothing going on there. Um And that means that Bitcoin and Iter are moving in line. Bitcoin is kind of packed at, you know, uh between 0.05 and 0.09 0.10 of the Bitcoin price. And for the last basically year to date, the correlation, the correlation is at about 90 something 0.9 I guess point it it's, it's really high correlation when you see a chart that flat, that means it's just completely correlated, almost completely correlated. And that tells us that, that tells us that the entire market basically views the two major crypto together. They, that their, their fates, whether we like it or not, are, are stuck together like, uh Bonnie and Clyde and Juliet. Uh you know, all of the above, all of the above. Yeah. Um Yeah, 100%. Yeah, I can't argue with that. Um The only thing that we can, that we can say about these markets is that usually when you have these large trading ranges and that goes for Bitcoin and also for this relationship is that once you break, you usually get a very aggressive move in the direction of the break. So right now it's really boring, but by the time we're gonna break on either side of that range, uh we're probably in for an aggressive move either up or down. Julius, talk to us about the significance of the curve Dow Token. What are you looking at here? Yeah, that's I, I sent you an RRG, a relative rotation graph for um a bunch of crypto. And um the, the ones that I usually that I usually look at um are on the, that, that's the price chart. I, the reason I picked that is OK, let me, let me get back on our RG. That curved Dow token really stands out as a, as an outlier in the universe. Of crypto and that's why I brought that here because um most of the alt coins are underperforming Bitcoin. Um Meaning that Bitcoin is the leading indicator and everything else is following Bitcoin. That is usually happening when Bitcoin, when the majors still have a move to go. And usually when Bitcoin has made a move, then you will see alt coins following suit. What we're seeing here is that curve is, is actually um ahead of the curve pun intended, uh starting to pick up. And if you look at that long term chart that weekly, you can see how that that lowest level is a very, very serious support level. It's been testing many, many times and if we can bounce off that, um, we're now trading around just about 50 cents. I mean, this could easily go to 1 50 possibly higher. So that's the reason I picked that chart because it stands out on a relative basis, um versus Bitcoin. And then we, we have that, that beautiful uh rotation chart there. Yeah, if you, that, that's why I can see why I picked that uh curve chart because on the left hand side, all these ones in blue, everything on the right is better than Bitcoin. Everything on the left is worse than Bitcoin. Uh And you can see that these blues they are already starting to roll over back down. So it looks as if they will not be able to cross over to the right part of the chart and uh curve dow is doing that is a exactly that. So it's, it's really setting itself apart from, um, let's say the entire group of, of Alcorn. So this is why this, this drew my attention and then I brought up that, that price chart of curve and I saw that it was bottoming against a very major support level. Um giving you a pretty much a uh I think a risk entry point because if you sink below that support area, that's obviously a hard stop, you need to get out because that's a big stop loss. But the upside is massive Julius. I know we're looking at the data here, but any idea as to why the curved out token is outperforming the rest of the market? I, you know what, I'm a technical analyst. If you ask me what the project is, what they really do. I have no idea. Absolutely no idea. So maybe enlighten me, what are they doing? What's so special? Why is it standing out? That's why you're here. We're here to ask the experts why we'll look into it and get back to the, don't care about fundamentals, talk about this thing. That's like theology looks beautiful. Julius. Thank you so much for joining us this morning and unpacking those charts for us. Thank you very much. That was stock charts dot com. Senior technical analyst, Julius Dear.

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