Nov 17, 2023

tastycrypto Head Ryan Grace joins "First Mover" with his analysis on bitcoin (BTC)'s price movement in the past week and outlook on the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Plus, insights on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delaying a decision on an application by Hashdex to convert its existing bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) into a spot vehicle.

Video transcript

It's been a wild week for Bitcoin. The world's largest Cryptocurrency by Market cap was close to 38,000 on Wednesday, guess where it is now, it's like 36,000. So those balloons popped. Uh Joining us now to discuss the crypto markets is head of tasty crypto. Ryan Grace. Welcome Ryan. Welcome back. Actually, thank you, Lawrence. Janice. Nice to see you both. Happy Friday. See you. So, um next six months, do you think that uh we're gonna continue to see some sort of uh bullishness? Can you explain why? Yeah, I think so. I think when you look out over the next six months, I mean, we're clearly in a bullish trend. We were training sideways really since March and now we've broken above some of those key levels. And I think you look for that trend to continue though. I would caution maybe in the, the very short term. Um I would caution around, you know, the idea that, hey, look, we're gonna see the fed on pause here. We're gonna see interest rate cuts and I would caution that being a good thing. You know, I do think that you see this trend continue. But if we start to see the economy slow down, which would cause the fed to ultimately pause and, and ultimately start to cut into next year. You know, I think it's because bad things are happening. But beyond that, when you look out at kind of this confluence of, of factors, it could all come into play really around the same time, you have the ETF approvals, which I know we've seen that kind of kicked down the road here by the SEC. But I don't think that that's unexpected. You have the having you have possibly um that accommodative monitor policy, we see a little bit more stimulus and you also have when you look on chain really ill liquid supply right now, we're about 75% or so of of long term supply is just kind of frozen. So I think the conditions are right for this bullish trend to continue. But again, I would caution in the short term, you know, you could still see a lot of volatility, but take advantage of that volatility would be my view. Speaking of the spot, Bitcoin ETF earlier this week, the SEC delayed a decision about hashtags spot Bitcoin ETF, I believe another application is, is coming up uh today. What do you think of these delays? Is it slowing momentum? What do you make of this? You know, I think you're gonna see a little bit of selling pressure when those, those headlines hit. Um but I don't think it changes anything. I think there's still a very high probability that we see these ETF S approved. Um I'm not surprised that the, the SEC is again kicking the can and delaying some of this. Uh I think that was to be expected, but as we get into um early next year into the 1st and 2nd quarter, I think that we will see these approved and, you know, I, I think generally that's gonna again continue to support this bullish narrative. Iiii I noticed you use the, the phrase uh e expect and probability and things like that. It's not guaranteed. And, and this is kind of a discussion I had with people the other day, uh that this is not something that's in the bag and that's across the board. Correct. There are ways for the sec to say, look, we're not approving this at all until we get control over the spot crypto markets or whatever it is. Um Do you think that that's a probability of happening as well if you had to assign, you said there's a probability if you had to assign a probability on ETF S spot, ETF s getting approved uh in the next six months, let's say, what would you assign that probability to be? Yeah, I think it's, it's above 50%. Right. I, I agree with you, Lawrence. I mean, there's certainly a chance that, um, we don't see this happen and that would definitely be a disappointment. And I think you would see, you know, certainly see some selling pressure as a result. But I think, uh just given how long this has taken where you've come from. Um I do think that there's a lot of momentum behind the industry right now. I mean, you have some of the biggest players in the space, obviously with Blackrock. Um people can speak to, to Larry Fink's connections. I think there's, you know, a greater than 50. I got to interrupt here because this is something that we do hear a lot that Blackrock is so sophisticated. Their attorneys are smarter than the S CCS attorneys. Every, but at the same time, Blackrock has to come up against not just the S ECs attorneys, they also have to come up against a guy who taught the class about crypto at MIT who now runs the SEC and it, it's just the SEC and the thing about regulators are that they don't have to worry about market pressures sometimes in regulating because if they say, look, we don't like something, we're not gonna approve it no matter what. Like, we don't care that trillion dollar asset managers want it. We don't like it and they can do that because they're the sec at the end of the day, they have an army and a bunch of guns backing them. So why would they care about how and whether or not Blackrock wants something and, and this, you know, they're not, they're, they don't care about market pressure sometimes. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, I, I don't disagree with that. I think in that case then, you know, maybe we just have to wait this out. Uh, I do think there is a higher probability that we see this approved but if not, you know, maybe this ultimately does become an election issue when we think about crypto and maybe you do see some single issue voters come out in response to that. I mean, really, uh, a lot of time until then but, um, you know, I guess that's what you'd have to bet on then next is that you have to wait this out and you see some kind of shift in terms of the SCC, how many, how many single issue voters do we see? And still states. I, I don't know. Well, I, I don't, I don't mind inflation but this is, this is what matters to me. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that, that there's, you know, a, a slim number but I guess that would just be the next step. Um, but for now I'm, I'm hopeful, I suppose one convention you put them all together, Lawrence. I spoke over you. We didn't hear you. Is it, you could put all the people who are crypto single issue voters in 11 conventional in Miami, in the entire country from the entire country. Ok, Lauren, we're gonna leave that there. I want to turn it down. So alt coins, are there any alt coins you're watching? We kind of monopolize this segment talking about Bitcoin and, and the spot Bitcoin ETF. But the alt have been doing some interesting stuff lately, especially Solana, which tumbled a bit this morning. What are you watching? Yeah, when I look across the space at all coins, you know, I think there might be a short term trading opportunity here where you see some of these uh play catch up certainly to Solana's performance. Um You know, when you look at the Solana BT C ratio, the spread there, um that's really just ripped higher versus something like E priced in Bitcoin, which is trading, you know, closer to those one year, those one year lows. So there might be an opportunity there where you see uh just in the short term, you know, a little bit of catch up when we look at E versus BT C, certainly E versus Solana. Um I also am looking at layer twos. So we've seen, you know, generally as, as they're all correlated just having various volatilities. We've seen everything perform relatively well here over the last couple of weeks. But if you're looking for a trading opportunity, there's possibly a chance for some catch up in some of the L two s against Ethereum. So when you look at arbitra, you look at optimism, um even polygon, you know, maybe there's an opportunity for a trade there as uh arbitra specifically has really underperformed on a relative basis versus what we've seen across the board. And what, what do you think ultimately led to today's sell off? You know, I just think it's a little bit of profit taking. I mean, I think in the short term, we've seen uh a pretty strong correlation between risk assets, uh generally speaking and crypto. So we saw a huge rip in crypto. We saw, you know, a massive move um in the S and P as well. And we're kind of seeing that run out of a little bit of steam. So I think that this is just kind of the, the natural course of trading, you're gonna get a little bit of chop. I still would look for opportunities to take advantage of those dips. Uh I think again, we're in a bullish trend, you know, your new range is maybe in terms of just where our volatility is, let's say it's, it's 35 to 40. Um I would look to, to buy those dips and I think we're just seeing a little bit of selling pressure after what's been, I mean, a massive rally over the last month when you look at a lot of these tokens. All right, Ryan, it's, it's that time of the segment for predictions. Where do you see Bitcoin headed towards the end of the year? I think into the end of the year, you know, if we continue to see, uh, again, risk assets trade. Well, here which a lot of people are betting on that kind of Santa Claus rally. Uh, we do know that from a seasonal perspective, November tends to be a great month for Bitcoin. Um, see if that continues into December, but let's say we're north of 40,000 going into the end of the year. I'm looking for this rally to continue.

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