Apr 1, 2024

Emerging Assets Group director of research Bill Noble joins CoinDesk to discuss his bitcoin price outlook and whether the upcoming halving will differ from the previous ones given the success of spot bitcoin ETFs.

Video transcript

I'm a big fan. I think I think Doj is gonna become money. It's eventually gonna become uh X Twitter money and it may wind up the official currency of Austin, Texas. If he brings all the headquarters here, it's Monday, April 1st 2024. And this is Markets Daily. A show where we get into the minds of the smartest and most experienced investors, traders and analysts. I'm Jen Sasi. Before we get into our discussion today, let's take a look at today's prices according to coindesk indices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Bitcoin was relative flat at around $69,740. Ether was down almost 2% at 3553 and the coin desk 20 index was down just over a percent at 2687 points for more on the market's action. Let's bring in emerging asset group director of research Bill Noble. Bill. Welcome to the show. Hi, thanks for having me. What a crazy time. It's been in crypto markets. I say that almost every morning on the show, um things are looking relatively flat this morning after a long weekend here in the United States. What are you watching? Well, we're watching, you know, Real World Assets. Right. Some of the smaller coins which are actually up this morning are holding steady while the bitcoins, correct. Big picture we're looking at, you know, dips, dips are gonna get smaller. So we're looking at small dips to get involved for a big move into April. You just said dips are gonna get smaller. Why do you think that is? Well, because I think so far, you know, dips have occurred. They've been scary, but you've been able to get them right? You've been able to get in and sometimes what bull markets do is when they, when they accelerate, they don't let you in, right? Because bull markets are just as hard as bear markets. So I'm anticipating a world with shallower dips as this thing becomes more. I guess you could say more obvious that it's going up. We we're talking about the price going up. The having is coming soon. It's April 1st today. I believe we're expecting the having on April 21st. Do you expect to see something similar to what we've seen during past having on this show before? We've had guests come on that say it could look pretty different given the approval of the spot, Bitcoin ETF S in the United States, just curious to see if you agree there, right? The amount of liquidity coming into the system with the Bitcoin ETF, uh, has changed things mainly because legacy investors who maybe are new to Bitcoin are gonna say, oh, the Bitcoin having you mean supplies reduced. Oh, we better hurry up and buy. Whereas normally crypto people are like, oh, it's here. Sell the fact. Ok, the Bitcoin ETF was not sell the fact as people thought. Right. I don't think the Bitcoin having, I think there's gonna be a lot of volatility afterwards, but it's not one of these things where you can sell and walk away for two weeks. So I think the Bitcoin ETF and you know, Blackrock saying that they want in on Real World assets like these tokens in this sector have been flying. So Blackrock has definitely changed the game because you know, you're a media person think about it if Blackrock makes an announcement, so does Franklin Templeton, et cetera, et cetera. They're all gonna make announcements. I want to talk about Real World assets in just a second, but tell me a little bit more about that. Do you think the Bitcoin having could be a sell the news event like the ETF was, I think people are going to sell on the Bitcoin having. But the most important thing to remember is what kind of market ramp do you get into the having this time around? Right past cycles. Normally, you know, the sell, the fact occurs, you know, many weeks before. So, you know, sell the fact could mean meme coins. Because as you know your legacy, what viewers will know sector, rotation is common in equities but not common in crypto. So it's not maybe just sell the fact the entire market, it may be sell the fact in certain sectors. So for example, if meme coins, you know I'm all about meme coins cause that's capital coming into the system. But it could be sell the fact in the most speculative assets of crypto and a rotation into real world assets A I cloud on the Blockchain, you know, future of money. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash. Doge don't laugh. So it could be said, never laugh at do. I would never, I'm a big fan. I'm a big fan. I'm a big fan. I think, I think Doge, you know, Doge is gonna become money, it's eventually gonna become uh X Twitter money and it may wind up the official currency of Austin, Texas if he brings all the headquarters here, you know, I've never actually heard anyone say that Doge could be an official currency of anywhere. Do you think that that actually could happen? Yeah. Well, Austin, sure the answer is yes, Austin is a tech town, right? Uh Elon's gonna bring the headquarters here. I mean I drive by the Giga Factory and it's just, I, I can't believe how big it is. It's stunning. So if, if you have with and cat coins, uh you know, with like hundreds of millions of dollars in market cap, you know, Doge almost becomes, you know, blue chip in a way. And then in Austin's a tech town, you know, everybody could become this cool trendy thing to start accepting Doge. It was just a cool trendy thing. French restaurants took she way back in the day so it can happen, especially if Elon wants it to. Any, anything is possible in this crazy world that we work in. Um, since we're on the topic of meme coins you just mentioned Doge and with any meme coins that you're watching that you're particularly interested in. I like the cat coin when, right? Just because, you know, I don't know, it's like equities, right? If, if dogs get overbought, then they have to turn around and, and buy cats, right? Uh You know, I looked at a very, very small meme coin uh C fa, right? Basically making fun of trad five guys that wear vests like this. Uh But that's, but again, that's, that's just, that's tongue in cheek. I think if you're gonna trade meme coins, it's, you know, buy Doge and cats and make sure you take your money and get out quick because the the the the real world of crypto investing don't laugh uh is undervalued and waiting for you. I want to get to those Real world assets. I know that you recently wrote that the US financial system is gearing up for Black level black Swan Level Stress and Real World assets and D five coins could become the backbone of the future of our financial system. Unpack this a little bit for me. Talk to me about what you mean. Governments don't always do the right thing. Uh Even though they may try. So the fed was behind the curve on inflation way back when you know, the fed, the fed was printing money still. Well, we were all starting to feel it at the grocery store and then they were in a big hurry to catch up and now we have 5% interest rates and that's creating stress in the system. $71 trillion in us. Government debt glo not us. I'm sorry, global government debt has to be rolled over this year. That is not gonna happen with FED funds at 5%. It's not and not to mention the stress on the consumer. So the longer they leave rates here, you know, the more stress they're putting on the system, they're actually behind the curve on rate cuts. And I think once they start, if there's an event in the banking system or with the government debt in general, they're gonna need to do three rate cuts like, OK, and then if that's over the summer, which is like way sooner than anyone expects. OK. That, that's gonna create an unbelievable environment for crypto because that means dollar finally lower. The only way to get out of a debt crisis is to sort of devalue the currency and if they have to come in and cut rates, it'll be a long term orderly downtrend in the dollar and a long term orderly uptrend, orderly for crypto, orderly uptrend in crypto. So the feds behind the curve is the elevator answer to your question. You know, that makes a lot of sense when you say that. But I wonder if the fact that more trad five giants like Blackrock are getting into the spot. Bitcoin ETF that crypto is becoming more correlated with traditional financial markets. Does that maybe change how uh crypto markets react to macro events like this? Do you think? Yes, crypto will have a mind of its own now, as far as Black Rock goes and what they're doing? Nobody is asking why is Blackrock doing what it's doing? Like why do they other than dominating? Right? You know, why does Blackrock want the Bitcoin ETF, why do they want to tokenize assets? Right? Uh For better liquidity for better marketing? OK. But you know, they're, they seem to be like they're pushing it. They, they're like, we're, we're ready to go now. So could it be possible possible for TV? Possible that these guys see future stress in the legacy system, the trad five system, could it be possible that these guys want to have it set up where they're not dependent on middle men, banking institutions where they can go directly to investors via the Blockchain? In other words, it's exciting that all these things are happening. But I don't know if anybody's really asking the question as to why they're happening. Right. Why? Right. It's because, you know, they're in a hurry to build a parallel system and, and who can blame him again, going back to the Fed, particularly if the fed has over tightened and is gonna create stress. I mean, you can read anything by Ray Dalio that sounds crazy. Read anything that he's written. All right, and we do got to wrap this up and I do like to ask on this show for a price prediction. I don't always get one. So don't feel like you're put on the spot. But where do you, where do you see Bitcoin heading by the end of the year? Yeah, Bitcoin is gonna take out 100. I mean, it's, it's that simple. I mean, beyond 100 it's tough. But you know, if you have Black Rock piling in and you have stock investors, right? Because what are stock investors like to do in the magnificent seven? They like to buy high and sell higher, right? So, you know, pension funds, stock market people, you know, Bitcoin takes out 100 bill. Thanks so much for joining the show this morning. Thanks for having me. That's it for Markets daily today. We'll see you tomorrow.

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