First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Falls in Pre-Holiday Trading; Ether Drops

A recovery in the tether-yuan pairing suggests the Chinese market is slowly recovering from the country’s crypto trading ban in September.

AccessTimeIconNov 24, 2021 at 11:30 p.m. UTC
Updated May 11, 2023 at 4:27 p.m. UTC
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening this morning:

Market moves: Bitcoin remains around $57,000 a day before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday while tether’s discount to the Chinese yuan mostly recovers from the extended shock of China’s September crypto trading ban.

Technician’s take: Initial signs of downside exhaustion could stabilize the intermediate-term uptrend from July. Volatility expected to rise.

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Prices

Bitcoin (BTC): $57,002 -1.1%

Ether (ETH): $4,250 -2.3%

Market moves

Bitcoin spent most of Wednesday trading below $57,000 with low trading volume, as the U.S. enters the Thanksgiving holiday. Ether dropped below $4,300, a more than 2% decline.

(CoinDesk/CryptoCompare)
(CoinDesk/CryptoCompare)

Meanwhile, a recovery in the price for the USDT/CNY (tether/Chinese yuan) pair indicated the market in China is slowly recovering from the country’s September severe ban on crypto trading, according to the Hong Kong-based crypto financial service provider Babel Finance.

Babel Finance wrote in its weekly newsletter dated Nov. 22 that tether’s quoted prices in the yuan on the over-the-counter (OTC) market have recovered in the past week.

Under normal market conditions, the price of tether expressed in yuan should match that of the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate with the Asian currency, but tether has traded at a significant discount since China’s ban.

A recovery from this discount indicates that China’s crypto market has returned to normal from the ban, which could be good news for the markets due to China’s historical significance in crypto.

Technician’s take

Bitcoin daily price chart (Damanick Dantes/CoinDesk, TradingView)
Bitcoin daily price chart (Damanick Dantes/CoinDesk, TradingView)

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding support above its 100-day moving average, which is currently at $53,700. The cryptocurrency was trading around $57,000 at press time and could see further upside toward the $60,000 resistance level over the short term.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is almost oversold, similar to what occurred in late-July and September, which preceded near-50% price rallies. Still, buyers will need to break above the $60,000-$65,000 resistance zone in order to yield upside price targets.

Price momentum is slowing on the daily chart, although initial signs of downside exhaustion could stabilize the intermediate-term uptrend from July. Volatility will likely return into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, which could lead to sharp price movements over the weekend.

Important events

1 p.m. HKT/SGT (5 a.m. UTC): Japan leading economic index (Sept.)

3 p.m. HKT/SGT (7 a.m. UTC): Germany gross domestic product (Q3/YoY)

4:10 p.m. HKT/SGT (8:10 a.m. UTC): Speech by Frank Elderson, member of the European Central Bank executive board

9:30 p.m. HKT/SGT (1:30 p.m. UTC): Speech by Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, at the Symposium on Proportionality

U.S. Thanksgiving holiday

CoinDesk TV

In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of “First Mover” on CoinDesk TV:

El Salvador is doubling down on its bitcoin adoption by planning to build a “Bitcoin City” and issue a bitcoin bond. Will El Salvador succeed? “First Mover” hosts spoke with Milena Mayorga, ambassador of El Salvador to the United States. Plus, First Mover covered markets insights from Greg King, Osprey Funds’ founder and CEO. His firm is planning to launch non-fungible token (NFT) funds by early next year.

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CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Muyao Shen

Muyao was a markets reporter at CoinDesk.

Damanick Dantes

Damanick was a crypto market analyst at CoinDesk where he wrote the daily Market Wrap and provided technical analysis. He is a Chartered Market Technician designation holder and member of the CMT Association. Damanick is also a portfolio strategist and does not invest in digital assets.


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