Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Taking Bets on Whether Russia Will Use a Nuclear Weapon by 2023

Traders on Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. users, are putting a 6% probability of Russia doing so.

AccessTimeIconOct 19, 2022 at 9:32 p.m. UTC
Updated May 9, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

Cryptocurrency predictions site Polymarket is accepting bets now on “Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?” following an escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine and increased calls by Russian authorities to utilize such weapons.

Polymarket is not available to U.S.-based traders. Earlier this year, the site was fined $1.4 million and ordered to cease offering noncompliant markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for not registering with it. Polymarket then limited access to only non-U.S. users.

  • How NEAR Enables Multichain Access From One Account
    00:56
    How NEAR Enables Multichain Access From One Account
  • Why the NEAR foundation Chose Eigenlayer as a Security Partner
    00:54
    Why the NEAR foundation Chose Eigenlayer as a Security Partner
  • Judge Kaplan Had 'No Love' for Sam Bankman-Fried, Legal Expert Says
    07:08
    Judge Kaplan Had 'No Love' for Sam Bankman-Fried, Legal Expert Says
  • How Bitcoin and Ether's Options Contracts Combined Expiry Could Spike Volatility
    01:11
    How Bitcoin and Ether's Options Contracts Combined Expiry Could Spike Volatility
  • The current odds being offered on "Yes" on the nuclear weapon question are about 17 to 1, meaning you'd win $17 for every $1 you bet. On the other hand, betting correctly on "No" would win you $1.06 for every $1 you bet.

    More simply put, the market is putting a 6% probability on Russia using a nuke this year.

    According to the bet's page, a prediction market on Russia's use of nuclear weapons “has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic.”

    Polymarket wrote that it considered the prediction market on this topic “a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century.”

    Polymarket detailed that “this market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by Dec. 31, 2022, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’” It added that to meet the “Yes” criteria, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity, must not be a test and must either be claimed by the Russian Federation or widely accepted to be from the Russian Federation.

    UPDATE (23:20 UTC): Clarifies passage about CFTC order, adds detail about probability.

    Disclosure

    Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

    CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

    Nelson Wang

    Nelson Wang was CoinDesk's news editor for the East Coast. He holds BTC and ETH above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1,000.


    Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.