First Mover Americas: Ether-Bitcoin Ratio on Track for Monthly Gain

The latest moves in crypto markets in context for March 31, 2022.

AccessTimeIconMar 31, 2022 at 1:23 p.m. UTC
Updated May 11, 2023 at 5:59 p.m. UTC

Good morning, and welcome to First Mover, our daily newsletter putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Sign up here to get it in your inbox each weekday morning.

Here’s what’s happening this morning:

  • Market Moves: The ether-bitcoin ratio is poised for a monthly gain. Observers say markets haven't fully grasped the bullish implications of Ethereum's impending proof-of-stake Merge.
  • Featured Story: Crypto industry mobilizes against proposed EU transparency rules.

And check out the CoinDesk TV show “First Mover,” hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time.

  • Michele Schneider, managing director, Marketgauge Group
  • Nischal Shetty, CEO, WazirX
  • Ben McMillan, CIO, IDX Digital Assets
  • Amitoj Singh, regulatory reporter for India, CoinDesk
  • Cordell Broadus, crypto entrepreneur
  • Adam Darrah, former CIA and director of dark ops, ZeroFox

Market Moves

By Omkar Godbole

The ether-bitcoin ratio appears to be on track to end March with a 6% gain, which would be its first monthly gain since November.

The renewed upswing following a three-month decline perhaps stems from investors dedicating more money to ether amid optimism surrounding Ethereum's impending proof-of-stake Merge.

According to some observers, the market hasn't priced in the bullish effects of the upgrade. So, the rotation of money out of bitcoin and ether could continue in the near term.

"We actually think that the market still hasn't fully grasped what's about to happen with Ethereum," Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, said in an email. "While there's been much media attention paid to how the upgrade will make the network more environmentally friendly, this is a sideshow compared to the massive supply shock that could be on the horizon. With this merge, Ethereum will experience a 90% decrease in supply issuance.

"To put this into perspective, to achieve an analogous reduction in supply issuance of this magnitude, the Bitcoin network would have to undergo three additional halvings," Spencer added.

At press time, ETH/BTC traded at 0.07235 on the Binance exchange, representing a 0.5% gain on the day. Ether traded 1% higher at $3,415, and bitcoin was up 0.20% at $47,170.

Bitcoin's rally stalled at the 200-day moving average hurdle placed above $48,000 early this week. "Bitcoin continues to cautiously retreat lower from its 200-day moving average at $48,200, building up strength ahead of a likely move north. The decline in US stock indices on Wednesday after four days of growth also did not contribute to the positive dynamics," Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said.

Nevertheless, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value appears to be set to end the month with a 9% gain, having risen by 12.2% last month, CoinDesk data shows.

The structure of consecutive monthly gains following a three-month losing streak resembles the reversal higher seen after June 2021. Bitcoin hit a record high of $69,000 in November.

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Bitcoin's monthly chart (TradingView)

It remains to be seen if the latest reversal higher translates into a bull run. Short duration charts indicate the path of least resistance is to the higher side.

The triangle breakout confirmed this month has put the bulls back into the driver's seat. The bullish formation looks similar to the breakout seen in early April 2019, following which the cryptocurrency rallied nearly 250% to reach $13,880 by the end of June of that year.

"Bitcoin has room for near-term upside follow-through toward the next resistance near $51.0K, defined by a 50% retracement level. Above that, secondary resistance near $55.2K would be targeted," Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said. "We move to an intermediate-term bullish bias noting intermediate-term momentum has shifted positively and the 50-day MA is pointing up."

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Bitcoin's daily charts (2022, 2019) (TradingView)

Latest Headlines

Crypto Industry Mobilizes Against Proposed EU Transparency Rules

By Sandali Handagama

Robert Kopitsch, secretary general of Brussels-based lobby group Blockchain for Europe, has been working around the clock to engage with European Union (EU) lawmakers ahead of a parliamentary committee vote targeting crypto transfers.

Kopitsch and other crypto advocates have been rallying supporters worldwide to sway members of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The committee is set to vote Thursday on measures that could effectively end all anonymous crypto transfers in the bloc, require verification of transfers to private or “unhosted” wallets and prohibit crypto transfers between the EU and tax havens.

The provisions, which were put in place over concerns that crypto is used for illicit activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing, seem to have the support of a majority of lawmakers. Critics say the measures are a violation of privacy.


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The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

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Parikshit Mishra is CoinDesk's Deputy Managing Editor responsible for breaking news coverage. He does not have any crypto holdings.

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Sandali Handagama is a CoinDesk reporter with a focus on crypto regulation and policy. She does not own any crypto.

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