How Upcoming Elections Around the World Could Impact the Crypto Industry

The State of crypto is presented by Tron connecting the world to the power of Cryptocurrency. All right, as 2023 comes to an end, we look forward to the upcoming elections in the United States, the Eu and India in 2024 and take a look at how they might impact the crypto industry. Joining me now to discuss this coin desk, global policy and regulation, managing editor Nick Day, who's also the editor of coin desks state of crypto newsletter. Nick. Hello. Hello, happy holidays. Yeah. Looking forward to it. Yeah. Well, we're also looking forward to, to a few elections that are taking place in multiple different regions. I mentioned them in the intro just now. Let's talk about the United States first. There's a presidential election coming up next year from a crypto perspective. What are you watching? Yeah. So it's gonna be really interesting, right? Because it is the presidential election, but as always, it's also the house election and a good chunk of the Senate is running for re election as well or running for election. So, well, it doesn't look like crypto is going to be a, you know, super major issue, at least as of, you know, December 2023 it's still going to be one of the issues that comes up and especially for, you know, maybe the House and Senate, it's gonna be really interesting to see how candidates if they talk about it, how do they talk about it? Because, you know, obviously Congressman Patrick mchenry, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee is stepping down. So, uh, we'll be looking to see who might place him on the committee and who might take on the leadership of the Republican caucus in the house for that committee. Uh We're gonna be looking at, you know, how many and if any lawmakers decide. Ok, well, this is gonna be a uh serious issue for us. So other races we will be watching, for example, include Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown, the current chair of the House, uh excuse me, Senate Banking Committee, which is another key committee for this industry. Uh He's in a tight race. So there's a number of races we will be watching as far as the presidential itself goes. Um I think we'll be listening for maybe some of the more adjacent issues if they come up. So, uh some of the economic questions, for example, how are these candidates looking at uh the economy and inflation, things like that? How are they looking at privacy? How are they looking at, uh you know, so the other kind of crypto adjacent topics that we've been talking about or how people transact and how they just kind of handle things that crypto industry is interested in but isn't perhaps directly crypto. And now I guess I gotta ask you about pending legislation ahead of the elections in the United States. Do you think we're gonna see any cryptos specific legislation or do you think that's gonna come after? Do you think it's dead in the water? What, what are folks saying? It's really hard to say. Um Obviously, you know, you mentioned Congressman mchenry. Uh He said publicly that he wants to have some type of legislation done before he leaves Congress. So, uh we'll see if he's able to make progress on that, but of course, he's running up against the clock. You know, he's only got so many more months left before most of Congress packs up and leaves, he had to run for re-election. And so if there's any kind of deal making to be made, particularly with the Senate, um you know, he's been able to get bills out of committee and uh while they haven't gotten the floor vote yet, uh it looks like he'll be able to get these bills out of the house itself, but there's no counterpart for some of the bills that he's wanted for the market structure bill or stable between legislation. And so the big question as always is, you know, will Senator Brown bring these up to a, you know, committee markup and a committee vote. Um, is there enough interest, is there enough, uh, you know, something there to sway other lawmakers to jump onto these bills? And we just don't have an answer to that right now. But we do know that if it's to happen, there's only, you know, some limited windows in which it could happen. All right, let's leave the US now and take a little trip around the globe to India. There's an upcoming general election next year. Uh Coin desk reporter Amitoj Singh recently asked the senior lawmaker in India, if the country will see any cryptos specific bill. And the answer was probably not until 2025. Talk to us about what's happening in India in terms of elections and how that might affect the industry. Of course, there's lots of crypto start ups that are, that are based there. What might they be watching? Yeah. So the industry's biggest concern in India seems to be this 1% tax deducted at source. Uh It's a pretty onerous tax for, you know, if you're trying to transact with crypto in India. So I know there's been a lot of interest into whether or not it might come up during the election as something that, uh you know, maybe one party or another would either commit to or at least discuss uh changing. But, you know, as you said, it does not look like this is going to be a thing that happens. Um And so I, I think what, you know, the industry might be looking for is just generally, you know, are there any lawmakers out there who are going to, you know, at least talk about? So it's, you know, not really been a campaign issue, not really been a topic of discussion outside of those rarified circles, uh, where, you know, they enacted attacks or briefly talk about it because reporters are asking. But, you know, if it comes up at all, I think that will be something really interesting to watch more. We had the coin DC X CEO on first mover recently and he said that he hopes that 1% tax deducted at source is reduced sometime soon. He said he's in talks with officials there. So maybe we'll see something happen with that. We'll continue watching what's going on in India. But let's leave India now, Nick, we're going, we're continuing on this global trip. We're going off to the European Union, talk to us about the elections we're expecting there and how that might affect or not affect the recent regulation there. Mika. Yeah. So the, you know, thing we're kind of expecting is obviously some of the lawmakers we've been following for a while are stepping down or, you know, their terms are expiring. So Mary mcguinness, for example, is the big one who's been, you know, kind of critical to a lot of the crypto stuff. She is going to be lead her role, uh you know, within the next year. And so we'll be looking to see who is replacing some of these uh you know, outspoken uh you know, legislative leaders on Mica, for example, for sure. Uh as well as what other amendments they might be talking about, Mica is, you know, it's taken a while, we can talk about it for years now, but it is getting to a place where uh companies are going to have to abide by the provisions. And so, uh the big question is, are there any um, other amendments or additional pieces of legislation that might come on top of Mica, uh that were, you know, that could drive or uh just direct companies to do certain things have certain, you know, uh types of, for example, reserves or backup processes, security, whatever. And we'll be watching for that uh as well as if there's any lawmakers who are anti mia. But, um, you know, obviously, if they uh are anti mia and they want to get rid of that bill probably a bit late, but it's still gonna be a discussion we watching. All right, Nick, thank you for unpacking what to expect in those elections. Uh Thanks for joining. Thank you. That was Coin Desk Global Policy and Regulation. Managing editor Nick Day who is also the editor of Coin Desk's state of crypto newsletter.