Bitcoin-Yen Pair Hits Record High, Reflects Stress on Japan's Fiat Currency

Fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, euro, and others are not backed by a hard asset, and their value is subjective and depends entirely on market perceptions at any point. Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing rally is telling of current market perceptions, with sentiment being weakest for the yen (JPY) among major fiat currencies.

For instance, early Monday, the leading cryptocurrency, often considered digital gold, hit a new record high of 7.9 million yen on Tokyo-based cryptocurrency exchange bitFLYER. In contrast, the cryptocurrency’s dollar-denominated price stood above $52,000 or 32% short of the record high of $69,000 reached in November 2021, according to data from the charting platform TradingView.

The price differential reflects relative stress on the Japanese yen, stemming from the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) continued liquidity easing, resurgent inflation and signs of economic weakness. The Japanese economy slipped into an economic recession at the end of the last year, slipping to fourth place behind Germany.

While the Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation, the BOJ kept interest rates at zero and continued printing tons of fiat money.

Japan’s core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy component from the consumer price index, climbed 3.1% in 2023, marking its biggest gain since 1982. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies and catalyzes investments into alternative assets with store-of-value appeals like bitcoin and gold.

The yen depreciated 13% and 7.5% against the dollar and is down another 6.4% this year. Bitcoin could continue to trade at a premium in the Japanese yen terms unless the Bank of Japan accelerates the planned exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy, making it relatively attractive to hold the yen over other assets.

Note that Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are known to have better legal clarity regarding digital assets trading than other developed markets. That, coupled with persistent volatility in fiat currencies, could foster the growth of alternative assets like cryptocurrencies in these regions.