Bitcoin Could Hit $48K in Days, Propelled by Historic Chinese New Year Gains: 10X Research

The largest crypto rallied every time in the last 9 years by 11% on average around the Chinese New Year festivity, says 10X's Markus Thielen.

AccessTimeIconFeb 8, 2024 at 4:27 p.m. UTC
Updated Mar 8, 2024 at 9:16 p.m. UTC
  • Bitcoin targets $48,000 in the short term fueled by a strong historic track record around the Chinese New Year, 10X Research's Markus Thielen said.
  • BTC could hit $52,000 by mid-March with the bull run peaking in 2025, Thielen added.

Bitcoin (BTC) is headed towards $48,000 in the short term after its breakout fueled by a strong track record of gains around the Chinese New Year celebration, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport and founder of 10x Research.

"The next few days are of paramount statistical importance as bitcoin tends to rally by +11% around Chinese New Year, starting on February 10 (Saturday)," Thielen wrote in a Thursday report. "During the last 9 years, Bitcoin has been up every time traders would have bought bitcoin 3 days before and sold it ten days after the start of the Chinese New Year."

The largest crypto by market capitalization surged past $45,000 Thursday after yesterday clearing a key resistance level around $44,000, which had been capping prices since the spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. about four weeks ago.

Thielen described the breakout as "very important" in that it marked the end of a corrective period that saw BTC decline to $38,500 in late January. "This opens the door to our shorter-term target of $48,000," Thielen added.

Bitcoin clearing the $43,800 level was a significant breakout, according to Thielen (10X Research)
Bitcoin clearing the $43,800 level was a significant breakout, according to Thielen (10X Research)

Bitcoin to $52,000 by mid-March

Looking further ahead, Thielen forecasted further upside for bitcoin based on Elliott Wave theory, a technical analysis that assumes that prices move in repetitive wave patterns. Price trends develop in five stages, according to the theory, of which waves 1, 3, and 5 are "impulse waves" representing the main trend. Waves 2 and 4 are retracements between the impulsive price action. BTC completed its wave 4 retracement by correcting to $38,500, according to Thielen, and has now entered its last, fifth impulsive stage of this uptrend targeting $52,000 by mid-March.

The overall bull market could run well into next year, peaking sometime between April and September 2025, Thielen said. In an earlier report, he set a $70,000 price target by the end of this year amid supportive macro environment, monetary tailwinds, U.S. election cycle and increasing demand from traditional finance investors.

Edited by Stephen Alpher.


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Krisztian  Sandor

Krisztian Sandor is a reporter on the U.S. markets team focusing on stablecoins and institutional investment. He holds BTC and ETH.