Polymarket Traders See 55% Chance of Second Trump Presidency

Trump recently won the first two Republican Party primaries.

AccessTimeIconJan 30, 2024 at 5:56 a.m. UTC

The U.S. presidential election is ten months away, and traders from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, seem confident that former President Donald Trump will return to power.

As of writing, the Yes side shares in the Trump prediction market tied to the "Presidential Election Winner 2024" contract traded at 55 cents, representing a 55% probability of Trump winning the election. Trump recently won the first two Republican Party primaries, which were conducted to choose the candidate best suited to lead their respective parties.

Traders see a 38% chance of President Joe Biden holding on to power and just 1% odds of Indian-American aspirant and Republican Nikki Haley winning the election. Meanwhile, traders assign a 2% probability of Michelle Obama outshining the competition amid rumors that the former U.S. First Lady could soon join the presidential race.

Since its debut in 2020, Polymarket has been one of the preferred destinations for traders looking to bet on binary events.

Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2024 betting contract. (Polymarket)
Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2024 betting contract. (Polymarket) (Polymarket)

Traders have bet over $22 million in the Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract, of which $3.4 million is currently locked in the Trump-focused prediction market.

The contract will expire on Nov. 5, and Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will be used as resolution sources for the market.

Traditional sports betting books also have Trump and Biden as favorites to win the 2024 Presidential election. Last week, Biden had +156 election odds to become U.S. president again, narrowly beating Trump's 150+ odds.

Edited by Sam Reynolds.


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Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.