Friday the 13th and Bitcoin. Is it Unlucky for Crypto Traders?

While U.S. stocks have typically gone down, the date has historically been positive for bitcoin.

AccessTimeIconOct 12, 2023 at 12:09 p.m. UTC
Updated Oct 12, 2023 at 12:14 p.m. UTC
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Friday the 13th is considered the unluckiest of days due to various superstitions and indeed that date has historically been bearish for the S&P 500, Wall Street's benchmark equity index.

Bitcoin (BTC), however, has historically performed positively on this dreaded date.

Data tracked by crypto services provider Matrixport show since 2010, bitcoin has risen 1% on average on Friday the 13ths, with prices then surging an average of 14% and 66% in one and three months, respectively, following these peculiar Fridays.

"While these [Friday the 13th] stats might superficially imply that Bitcoin experiences significant gains on Friday the 13th, a more nuanced evaluation hints at the potential for a corrective phase within the crypto market," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, said in a note to clients Thursday.

"Specifically, Ethereum's ability to generate revenue faces challenges due to limited activity in DeFi applications and a notable decline in NFT minting. Concurrently, crypto markets are exhibiting signs of weakness, suggesting the possibility of lower cryptocurrency prices in the near future," Thielen added.

The dreaded numerical configuration has been positive for bitcoin in the past (Matrixport)
The dreaded numerical configuration has been positive for bitcoin in the past (Matrixport) (Matrixport)

Ether's price is trading near September lows of $1,550 at press time. The key support, if breached, could trigger substantial liquidation of leveraged positions. That would open doors for a deeper slide toward $1,430 and eventually $1,300 and have market-wide ramifications, per Thielen.

"Chart-technical levels for Ether (ETH) are breaking, which could set off cascading liquidations, with the broader crypto market, including Bitcoin, susceptible to negative sentiment shifts," Thielen noted.

Note that bitcoin has dived out of a bullish trendline characterizing September's bounce from $25,000 to $28,500.

BTC has dived out of the mini-bullish trendline. (TradingView)
BTC has dived out of the mini-bullish trendline. (TradingView) (TradingView)

Edited by Stephen Alpher.


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Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

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