MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Purchases Tend to Be Short-Term Negative for Prices, Research Shows

Past data shows bitcoin tends to drop 2% on the day MSTR announces new purchases.

AccessTimeIconJun 28, 2023 at 2:22 p.m. UTC
Updated Mar 8, 2024 at 5:00 p.m. UTC
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Early Wednesday, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced the purchase of over 12,000 bitcoin (BTC) for $347 million. The fresh accumulation has boosted the company's coin stash to 152,333 BTC.

So far, MicroStrategy's announcement failed to spur bullish action in the bitcoin market, allowing bitcoin to retreat to the lower end of the recent trading range of $30,000 to $31,000.

The dull market response is consistent with the cryptocurrency's record of losing some ground following MicroStrategy's announcements of new coin purchases of over 1,000 BTC, according to data analyzed by K33.

"MicroStrategy BTC purchase announcements tend to be followed by short-term negative price action in BTC, as the market absorbs the fact that certain buy-side liquidity has left the market," Vetle Lunde, research analyst at K33, told CoinDesk.

BTC performance after MSTR purchases (K33)
BTC performance after MSTR purchases (K33)

Since 2020, bitcoin has registered an average daily return of negative 2% on days of MSTR announcements. The average weekly return following MSTR's announcement is slightly positive.

"The short-term impact tends to reverse in the days that follow, and there are no clear evidence of a prolonged adverse market impact on MicroStrategy announcements, with the average weekly return sitting in slight positive territory," Lunde said.

MicroStrategy began adding bitcoin to its balance sheet three years ago as a hedge against the Federal Reserve’s the-then ultra easy monetary policy. Recently, MicroStrategy’s CEO Micheal Saylor said that the crypto market is likely to become BTC-centric due to the recent U.S. regulatory crackdown on the digital assets industry.

Edited by Oliver Knight.


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Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

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