Bitcoin, Ether Start the Week Slowly, With Fed’s Powell Testimony Looming

Cryptos’ declines last week appear to be a re-pricing of risk rather than an exit from the space.

AccessTimeIconMar 6, 2023 at 8:59 p.m. UTC
Updated Mar 7, 2023 at 1:32 p.m. UTC

Digital assets started the week quietly, with both bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) trading within a tight range.

Trading volume for both fell below their respective, 20-day moving averages, reflecting a market that is showing little conviction in any direction.

BTC and ETH are both trading less than 1% above their respective 50-day moving averages, and have yet to dent the 4% and 5% declines of the prior week.

Negative sentiment continues to overhang markets following the unraveling of crypto-focused bank Silvergate’s asset base. The specter of contagion landing on counterparties (i.e., Coinbase, Paxos and Galaxy Digital) has markets understandably concerned.

Still, given Monday’s relatively flat trading, investors seem to simply be re-pricing risk within crypto assets, rather than abandoning markets. If investors were departing, the decline following the Silvergate development would be more pronounced on significantly greater volume.

A look at BTC and ETH’s daily chart shows the opposite, with little price movement and diminished activity.

An important gauge in the coming week will be BTC and ETH’s 20-day moving average, and the extent to which both assets recapture (or don’t) that level.

Following Friday’s decline, bitcoin traded above its 20-day moving average for 16 consecutive days. ETH accomplished this in 15 out of the prior 16 days. A recapture of the 20-day moving average would suggest that investors have adjusted to, and moved on from the Silvergate news. A decline would suggest the opposite.

Markets may be quieter than usual ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony this week before the U.S. Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees.

Observers of U.S. monetary policy widely expect Powell to reiterate the bank’s commitment to lower inflation through hawkish interest rate hikes, citing concerns about an overheated jobs market that has put pressure on organizations to raise wages.

Despite the lack of trading volume, on-chain activity implies that demand still persists within the crypto space.

While trailing its yearly average, Bitcoin Transfer Volume (BTV), which shows the influx of new capital into bitcoin has increased 79% year to date. Moves higher imply increased demand and adoption.

Bitcoin transfer volume, 30-day moving average (Glassnode)
Bitcoin transfer volume, 30-day moving average (Glassnode)


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Glenn Williams

Glenn C Williams Jr, CMT is a Crypto Markets Analyst with an initial background in traditional finance. His experience includes research and analysis of individual cryptocurrencies, defi protocols, and crypto-based funds. He owns BTC, ETH, UNI, DOT, MATIC, and AVAX