No Letup in Demand for Bitcoin, Ether Puts After Dovish Fed Minutes

Puts tied to BTC and ETH continued to draw demand as FTX contagion fears outweighed the dovish tone from the Fed.

AccessTimeIconNov 24, 2022 at 11:01 a.m. UTC
Updated Nov 28, 2022 at 5:31 p.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global event for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

U.S. Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic factors are no longer the focal points for crypto traders.

That's the message from the derivatives market, which shows no signs of a letup in demand for puts, or bearish bets, tied to bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) in the wake of the dovish Fed minutes released Wednesday.

The persistent put bias indicates the market is squarely focused on contagion sparked by the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, formerly one the world's largest crypto trading platforms by volume, and is unlikely to find a bottom solely on the back of improving macro conditions.

"Crypto is still very much event risk driven, reacting to news/rumors about the health of major crypto lender Genesis," Dick Lo, the founder and CEO of quant-driven trading firm TDX Strategies, said.

The crypto market, roiled by the Fed's aggressive liquidity tightening, has long been waiting for the central bank to signal a shift away from rapid-fire interest rate hikes. The market got what it wanted Wednesday.

"A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of [interest rate] increase would likely soon be appropriate," the minutes said.

The minutes also hinted at a lack of support for Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting “higher rates for longer" statement, sending the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields lower and stocks higher.

Yet, bitcoin and ether put-call skews, which measure the cost of bullish calls relative to bearish puts, remain entrenched in negative territory, implying a bias for puts.

Puts remain in demand after dovish Fed minutes, indicating the market is squarely focused on the fallout from the FTX exchange. (Amberdata)
Puts remain in demand after dovish Fed minutes, indicating the market is squarely focused on the fallout from the FTX exchange. (Amberdata)

Both short-term and long-term skews have barely bounced in favor of calls since the release of the Fed minutes.

"Clients are not selling their holdings, but want to hedge the downside," Lo said.

South Korea-based blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said, "The ongoing financial problems of Genesis Trading, which needs [$0.5 billion to $1.0 billion] from outside investors to stay in business, keep pushing the price of bitcoin down."

Genesis, one of the many firms exposed to FTX, has hired a restructuring adviser after halting withdrawals. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 11. Genesis is owned by Digital Currency Group, which is also the parent of CoinDesk.

Bitcoin traded near $16,580 at press time, having failed to establish a foothold above the $17,000 mark early Thursday.

According to some chart analysts, the largest cryptocurrency by market value is headed toward $13,000.

"Recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market has generated a long-term breakdown in bitcoin below key support near $18.3K, increasing downside risk to support from the 2019 high (~$13.9K) over the coming months," Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, said in a note to clients.

"The bear market cycle remains in force, with negative long-term momentum allowing oversold conditions to be sustained," Stockton added.

The chart shows bitcoin has dropped below key support. (Fairlead Strategies)
The chart shows bitcoin has dropped below key support. (Fairlead Strategies)

Disclosure

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.


Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.