Bitcoin is dull – and will probably be dull for the next year and a half — but it will eventually see all-time highs thereafter, Peter Brandt, founder and CEO of proprietary trading firm Factor LLC, said Monday on CoinDesk’s “First Mover” program.
“We [will] just chop between ... let’s say $17,000 and $23,000,” said Brandt. “I think we will bottom here at some point in time, maybe early next year, but then I’m not looking for bitcoin really to become exciting again for another couple of years.”
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price was sticking around $19,200 on Monday, and has stayed below $20,000 for over two weeks.
The highly regarded technical trader, who has been in the business since the 1970s, predicted it would take 32 months before BTC reaches a new all-time high. Until then, he said, expects the largest cryptocurrency by market value to bottom at $13,000.
Bitcoin’s price has come under pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate hikes, meant to curb this year’s hot inflation. Traders and investors across the markets are eyeing the Fed’s next meeting of its monetary-policy committee, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC. Based on the CME’s data of fed funds futures contracts, Wall Street expects a fourth consecutive 75-basis point interest rate hike in November and then possibly smaller hikes thereafter.
Brandt, however, said he didn’t see the interest rate hikes dropping off and expects a 75-basis point increase on Nov. 2 followed by another 75 bps increase on Dec. 14.
“I think that the Fed knows that inflation is a killer,” he said. “The Fed needs to regain its credibility. And to do that, I think the Fed really needs to bring inflation rates back down to at least 4%.” The most recent U.S. annual inflation rate, measured in September, was at 8.2%.
Bitcoin correlated to ... bitcoin
Bitcoin has been seen as a “risk-on” asset, a sign of the market’s appetite for risk. But as traditional market turmoil continues, BTC has seen lower volatility compared to stocks. Meanwhile, BTC”s correlation with gold – which is considered a safe-haven asset during the time of market volatility – reached its highest level in over a year.
Yet, Brandt said he expects bitcoin's value to be “separate from what any other market going to do.”
“Bitcoin is going to be correlated with bitcoin eventually,” he said.
Despite the current narrative that bitcoin’s fate is tied to the market’s desire for risk, Brandt said the cryptocurrency will be the “ultimate store of value” in the next 10 years.
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