Hi, I'm Jimmy He, here to take you through the day's crypto market highlights and news.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $23,000 in Tuesday afternoon trading and was changing hands at around $23,350.
In two days, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has climbed by more than 12% and pushed the price to its highest point since bitcoin collapsed on June 13.
The Crypto Greed & Fear Index, which tracks investors’ cryptocurrency sentiments, moved from “extreme fear” to “fear” and rose 10 points to 30, the highest since April.
Most altcoins gained, with FLOW leading the charts, up 16% over the past 24 hours.
Today’s edition of "Market Wrap" was produced by Sage D. Young.
●Bitcoin (BTC): $23,183 +7.8%
●Ether (ETH): $1,550 +6.4%
●S&P 500 daily close: 3,936.69 +2.8%
●Gold: $1,710 per troy ounce +0.0%
●Ten-year Treasury yield daily close: 3.02% +0.06
Bitcoin, ether and gold prices are taken at approximately 4pm New York time. Bitcoin is the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX); Ether is the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX); Gold is the COMEX spot price. Information about CoinDesk Indices can be found at coindesk.com/indices.
BTC Finds Support at $20K, Shrugs Off Possibility of 1% Rate Increase for Now
By Glenn Williams Jr.
Macroeconomic headwinds continue to be the order of the day for BTC’s price or, more directly, inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s response. An item for investors to keep an eye on is a recent shift in target rate probabilities for the July 27 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool (which calculates rate level probabilities for a specific point in time), markets are predicting a 66.8% chance that the FOMC raises interest rates by 0.75% (75 basis points) on July 27. Of note is that seven days prior, that probability stood at 92.4%. Moreover, the probability of a 100 basis point increase in rates moved from 7.6%, to 33.2%. An increase of 100 basis points would likely be received as bearish for crypto prices.
At the moment, bitcoin traders appear to be taking the shift lightly, as BTC prices are up 3.93% intraday. In our view, few U.S. data points exist between now and the July 27 meeting that are likely to affect probabilities. Investors, however, are likely to monitor Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims data. The current consensus estimate for initial claims is 240,000 versus actual claims of 244,000 for the prior week. We expect that higher-than-expected jobless claims will deter the Federal Reserve from increasing rates more than 0.75%.
From a technical vantage point today’s increase represents the second consecutive day of higher prices, and the sixth day of higher prices over the last seven. Of note is that both today and Monday’s price increases occurred on higher than average volume (when looking at average volume over the most recent 20 trading days).
BTC prices appear to have found support at $20,500 as evidenced by the “high volume node” displayed on the “Visible Range Volume Profile” tool. The VRVP tool displays trading activity at specific price levels over a distinct time period. High volume nodes display price levels where above-average trading volume has occurred, and can serve as indications of support and/or resistance. As implied below, the VRVP shows a visible decline in volume between $25,500 (which we would view as support), and $30,000 (which we would view as resistance).
Also of note is the increase in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is often used as both a proxy for momentum, and an indication of overbought and/or oversold levels. Traditionally, a level of 30 or below implies oversold conditions, while levels of 70 or above indicate overbought conditions. During the last 30 days, the RSI for bitcoin has increased to 61.58 from a level of 20.36. Prices over that identical time period have increased by 23.5%.
- THORChain Phases Out Support for Rune Tokens: The exchange has activated a “killswitch” that will eventually phase out rune (RUNE) based on the Ethereum blockchain and BNB Chain in favor of rune issued on its native blockchain. The move comes weeks after THORChain’s native blockchain went live on seven supported networks. Read more here.
- Audius to Allow Tips Using Audio Token: The Ethereum and Solana-based music streaming service is offering a new feature for creators to monetize their content by allowing listeners to send tips to artists using the platform’s governance token. Read more here.
- Listen 🎧: Today’s "CoinDesk Markets Daily" podcast discusses the latest market movements as well as the Fed, inflation and what to expect for the upcoming ETH Merge.
- Three Arrows Owes Polkadot Developer Moonbeam Foundation Over $27M, Court Documents Show: The hedge fund was also engaged as a “consultant" for Moonbeam-based glimmer and Moonriver-based river tokens.
- Bored Apes Creator Warns of Threat Group Targeting NFT Communities: Attackers have targeted wallets hosting several high-profile NFT collections in the past few months.
- US Justice Department Seizes $500K in Ransom Payments and Crypto From North Korean Hackers: Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said the FBI has identified a new type of ransomware used by the state-sponsored hackers.
- Dragonfly Capital Leads $13M Round for DeFi Infrastructure Startup XLD Finance: XLD offers cross-border financial tools for customers in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh.
- Fedi to Build Privacy-Focused Bitcoin Mobile App on Fedimint Protocol: The funds from a $4.2M seed round will be used to develop the Fedi mobile app built on top of Fedimint, a Bitcoin “community custody” protocol.
- Silvergate's Q2 Net Income Jumps 85%, Shares Spike: The crypto bank's stock was up 7.6% in premarket trading.
- Investment Firm Valkyrie Branches Into Venture Capital With Focus on Israeli Crypto Startups: Veteran venture capitalist Lluis Pedragosa is leading the new team with a $30 million target fund.
- French Banking Giant BNP Paribas Enters Crypto Custody Space: Sources: The French bank will be working with crypto custody specialist Metaco, which is becoming the go-to provider for banks and institutions looking to enter the crypto space.
- Social Media Protocol CyberConnect Launches Link3 for Secure Networking: The product is debuting two months after the company raised $15 million in Series A funding.
- Crypto Mining and Staking Firm Foundry Starts Training Program for Miners: DCG subsidiary Foundry is launching a training program for mining technicians.
Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.
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