Bitcoin Immune to 'Sell in May' Adage if History Is Guide

Historically, May has been the fourth-best month for bitcoin.

AccessTimeIconMay 2, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. UTC
Updated May 11, 2023 at 6:44 p.m. UTC
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It's that time of the year again when investors wonder, "should I sell in May and go away?" The famous traditional market adage may not apply to bitcoin (BTC), however, according to seasonality analysis.

  • Bitcoin has logged gains in May in seven years out of the past 11 years, per charting platform TradingView's bitcoin index, which records prices from July 2010.
  • Historically, May has been the fourth-best month for the cryptocurrency.
  • "In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four times," Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.
  • "The average rise was 27%, and the average decline was 16%. Under these scenarios, the estimated average range for BTC at the end of May is between $32,000 and $48,000," Kuptsikevich added.
  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, more so as bitcoin's market composition has changed significantly since 2020, with institutions and macro traders having more say in determining prices.
  • These entities treat bitcoin as a risk asset and could liquidate their holdings if bears continue to dominate the action on Wall Street.
  • The chart below shows the second quarter of the second year of the U.S. presidential cycle is bearish for S&P 500, the Wall Street's benchmark equity index.
S&P 500's performance during U.S. presidential cycles. (LPL Research)
S&P 500's performance during U.S. presidential cycles. (LPL Research)

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Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.


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