Bullish signals for bitcoin have emerged, favoring a continued price rally toward the widely tracked 200-day simple moving average (SMA), according to a technical analysis by Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies.
The daily chart shows the leading digital asset has risen from $38,500 to $42,200 in the past three days, defending the Ichimoku cloud support.
Created by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s, the Ichimoku cloud comprises two lines – the leading span A and the leading span B. Both are plotted 26 days ahead of the last candle. The indicator is widely used to identify support and resistance, with crossovers above or below representing an advance warning of bullish or bearish breakouts.
The latest bullish defense is backed by positive signals from technical tools like stochastics and MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) histograms.
"Bitcoin held important cloud-based support near $40,000 and has generated an oversold 'buy' signal from the daily stochastics after a three-day rally, supporting a short-term bullish bias," Stockton said in an email. "The daily MACD is pinched as well, reflecting improved short-term momentum that supports a move higher toward next resistance near $48.1K, defined by the 200-day MA."
In technical analysis, stochastics are indicators that oscillate between 0 and 100, helping traders identify oversold and overbought conditions and trade entry and exit points. An asset is considered to be oversold when stochastics drop under 20 and overbought when they top 80. A turn higher from under 20 is taken as a buy signal.
The MACD histogram is used to identify trend changes and trend strength. The indicator's positive/negative flips indicate bullish/bearish trend changes. Meanwhile, the "pinch" – declining bars or lower highs above the zero line and higher lows below the zero line represent bullish and bearish exhaustion.
The three-day rise has brought the 200-day SMA of $48,000 into focus. In late March, the average proved a tough nut to crack, stalling the recovery rally from lows near $37,500.
On the downside, Monday's low of $38,550 is the level to beat for the sellers.
Bitcoin was recently trading near $42,300, representing a 2% gain on the day, according to CoinDesk data.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.