BTC was trading around $40,600 at press time and is up 3% over the past week.
Resistance at $46,700 remains intact, which capped a series of price rallies since the Jan. 24 low at $32,930. That could signal an extended period of consolidation, especially as trading volume continues to fade.
Still, there is potential for higher volatility this month. Bitcoin has been capped within the $30,000-$69,000 price range over the past year – a wide trading zone with sharp price swings.
The previous trading range from May to October 2020 resulted in a strong rally. This time, however, monthly momentum gauges are at an all-time low, which lowers the chance of a significant upside move in March and April.
For now, market conditions are tradable (small position sizes and tight stop losses) from a short-term perspective. And over the long-term, the 40-week moving average, which is currently neutral/flat, has been a useful guide for trend direction.
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