First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Falls Slightly in Soft Trading; Launch of VanEck Futures ETF Coming Soon

Good morning, Here’s what’s happening this morning:

Market Moves: Bitcoin declines slightly in soft trading.

Technician’s take: Upside momentum is slowing, although pullbacks remain limited.

Catch the latest episodes of CoinDesk TV for insightful interviews with crypto industry leaders and analysis.

Bitcoin (BTC): $63,939, -1.1%

Ether (ETH): $4,576, -0.3%

Bitcoin was slipping in digital-asset markets, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, and seemed to be establishing a new range in the low $60,000s.

The blockchain network’s much-anticipated Taproot upgrade did little to provide an immediate market jolt, despite the hopes of some bullish analysts.

The next catalyst could come from the launch Tuesday of the VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF – the first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to go live since the well-received debuts of ProShares and Valkyrie bitcoin futures ETFs a few weeks ago.

“This week we see another bitcoin futures ETF begin to trade, and the inflows will be telling,” Matt Blom, head of sales and trading at the crypto firm Eqonex, wrote Monday in a newsletter. “Strong demand will allow the market to settle, absorb the weaker hands and move back towards Bitcoin’s ATH and a $70,000 print.”

In traditional markets, oil prices were under pressure, around $81 a barrel for the U.S. benchmark, amid speculation President Joe Biden might increase the pace of selling from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Treasury yields rose on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to accelerate its withdrawal of monetary stimulus, perceived to be a negative for bitcoin.

On the inflation front, some investors speculated Biden might use his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to roll back some tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump. And traders in the U.S. will look closely at the latest report on U.S. retail sales to gauge the health of consumers – and how they’re responding to prices rising at the fastest pace in three decades.

“We seem set for higher, long-term inflation rates, but not runaway inflation, which is a very bad backdrop for society, but a very good backdrop for continued strength in all risk assets, like digital assets,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of Arca Funds, wrote Monday.

Bitcoin Pullback Could Stabilize Around $60K Support

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating after buyers failed to sustain a price bounce over the weekend.

The cryptocurrency is displaying signs of upside exhaustion on the charts, which suggests further downside is likely, albeit limited toward the $57,000-$60,000 support zone.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart (see above, featured image) registered an oversold signal on Nov. 12, although buyers quickly took profits around the $66,000 resistance level. The RSI is currently neutral, which means a period of consolidation could persist this week.

For now, upside momentum is slowing on the daily chart, indicating risk of a pullback into Asian trading hours.

10:30 a.m. HGT/SGT (2:30 a.m. UTC): Speech by Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia

12:30 p.m. HGT/SGT (4:30 a.m. UTC): Japan Tertiary Industry Index (Sept. MoM)

3:45 p.m. HGT/SGT (7:45 a.m. UTC): France Consumer Price Index (Oct. YoY/MoM)

9:30 p.m. HGT/SGT (1:30 p.m. UTC): U.S. Retail Sales (Oct. MoM)

10:15 p.m. HGT/SGT (2:15 p.m. UTC): U.S. Industrial Production (Oct. MoM)

In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of “First Mover” on CoinDesk TV:

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