Bitcoin’s price has risen over 40% this month, reaching a new record of $66,879 on expectations the recently listed ProShares exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to the cryptocurrency’s futures would bring more mainstream money into the market.
Such a steep ascent often has investors assessing whether the party is coming to a close, especially when popular technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) signal overbought conditions, as with bitcoin.
However, blockchain metrics like the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) Z-score and a lesser-known chart-based indicator, Mayer Multiple, suggest the bull run has plenty of steam left.
The MVRV Z-score that measures the deviation of market value from realized value and is used to assess undervalued and overvalued conditions, has doubled to 3.91 this month. However, the value is nowhere close to the red zone above 5.00 that has historically marked the final leg of a bull market.
The market value represents the total network value of the cryptocurrency and is calculated by multiplying the total circulating supply by the last traded price. Meanwhile, the realized value is calculated by valuing each coin at the price it was last moved.
Although bitcoin market valuations may not be cheap, they do not appear to be overstretched either, with there being a scope for an extension of the price rally.
“When market value is significantly higher than realized value, it has historically indicated a market top (red zone), while the opposite has indicated market bottoms (green zone),” blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said in the MVRV Z-score explainer.
The Mayer Multiple, which measures the spread between bitcoin’s price and the 200-day moving average (MA), also shows the bull market is still far from peaking. While the metric has risen to a five-month high of 1.39, it is well below the 2.4 threshold, above which previous bull markets peaked.
The cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to macro risks and potential risk-off in traditional markets.
According to Reuters, there is a growing view in the market that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon feel compelled to scale back stimulus more aggressively to contain inflation. “U.S. traders are now pricing a full rate hike into the Fed’s September policy meeting next year. But by that time, New Zealand’s central bank would have hiked five times, Canada’s three times and England’s four times,” a Bloomberg report said.
Should the market start pricing more aggressive Fed rate hike bets, risk assets, including bitcoin, may face some selling pressure.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, institutional digital assets exchange. Bullish group is majority owned by Block.one; both groups have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary, and an editorial committee, chaired by a former editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal, is being formed to support journalistic integrity.