Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) shares could fall to $100 or less as the company is unlikely to meet future profit expectations, according to a U.S. investment research firm.
Nashville-based firm New Constructs' CEO David Trainer thinks investors should expect Coinbase's stock to continue to underperform, despite favorable yearly earnings.
"At [Coinbase's] current price ... the stock’s valuation implies the company will exceed the combined revenue of Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq," Trainer said in a research note emailed to CoinDesk on Tuesday. "We do not expect [Coinbase] to report any news from [the first quarter of this year] that could justify owning shares at current levels."
Coinbase is expected to report its first earnings on Thursday. Yet, even though the exchange has posted impressive year-over-year revenue of around $500 million and an increase in users, the research firm still believes the stock will continue to slump over the long term.
"No earnings report, in our opinion, will be strong enough to convince investors the company will exceed the extraordinary expectations for profits already baked into the current price," wrote Trainer.
The CEO also pointed to rising competition in the crypto trading space and tapering of profits for Coinbase that could lead to an unsustainable valuation.
New York Investment firm Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau disagrees, rating the stock as "outperform" in a note on Monday. Oppenheimer said Coinbase removes "pain points" in finance and set a price target of $434 per share over 12–18 month period.
But the recent performance gains have done little to convince Trainer, who wrote Coinbase had "more downside risk ahead."
Coinbase stock has fallen 12% since debuting on the Nasdaq in mid-April with an opening price of around $381. Up 20% from May 6 lows of around $250, Coinbase shares recently traded at $303, with buyers showing some signs of life.
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