Bitcoin's Risk-Reward Ratio Suggests Bull Run Has Plenty of Scope to Continue

Bitcoin's "reserve risk" metric indicates the cryptocurrency is nowhere close to a major price top.

AccessTimeIconMar 23, 2021 at 11:28 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 14, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. UTC

Despite seeing its biggest drop for a month in the last 24 hours, bitcoin's bull run is likely to continue.

That's the suggestion of blockchain data showing the cryptocurrency is still an attractive bet for existing holders and prospective buyers.

Bitcoin's "reserve risk" metric measures the risk-reward ratio of investment based on long-term holders' confidence relative to the price at any given point of time, and is currently seen at 0.008. That's well short of highs above 0.02 seen during the bull market frenzies of December 2017, December 2013, and June 2011, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

The low current level suggests confidence is still high relative to the cryptocurrency's price. Essentially, the risk/reward is skewed attractively even after the cryptocurrency's six-fold rally in the past 5.5 months.

"The incentive for long-term holders to sell is still relatively low when compared to past bull markets," Jeff Rose, founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, tweeted Monday. "This metric suggests the current bull market still has a long way to run in terms of price increases."

The bullish signal is consistent with the positive picture painted by other on-chain indicators, such as the market value relative to realized value ratio.

Bitcoin's reserve risk
Bitcoin's reserve risk

Bitcoin's latest bull market commenced a year ago after the reserve risk fell into the buy zone (green area) below 0.002. Since then, the cryptocurrency has charted an 11-fold rally.

The risk-reward ratio will be deemed unattractive once the indicator hits the red zone above 0.02.

Reserve risk is calculated by dividing bitcoin's price at any point in time by the "HODL Bank," as detailed by Glassnode, which represents the opportunity cost of holding an asset. "Each day a coin is held, the owner defers the ability to exchange it for its cash value," according to Glassnode.

At press time, bitcoin is trading nearly 1.2% higher on the day at $54,738, having defended support at $53,000 earlier in Tuesday, according to CoinDesk 20 data.

"We have seen roughly under $1 billion in liquidations in the past 24 hours. However, the market continues to hold its $53,000 support," said Matthew Dibb, COO and co-founder of Stack Funds. "There is an expectation of a deeper pullback to $47,500 if we confidently close below [the $53,000] level."


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