Bitcoin Faces Price Turbulence as Market Liquidity Falls, Says JPMorgan

With liquidity falling in the bitcoin market, smaller trades can have a relatively large price impact.

AccessTimeIconFeb 22, 2021 at 10:18 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 14, 2021 at 12:14 p.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

Bitcoin's falling market liquidity – how much is available for trades – is raising the risk of wild price swings, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

"Market liquidity is currently much lower for bitcoin than in gold or the S&P 500, which implies that even small flows can have a large price impact," bitcoin's falling market liquidity – how much is available for trades – makes it prone to wild price swings, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note on Friday, as reported by Bloomberg.

While bitcoin has rallied by over 300% since mid-October, the number of coins held in exchange addresses has declined by 6.6% to 2.38 million, according to Glassnode data. This sell-side liquidity shortage has been exacerbated by strong institutional demand, allowing the steep price rally to record highs over $58,000 Sunday.

The low liquidity is also evident from bitcoin's average daily spot and futures market volume of $10 billion, which is just 10% of gold's $100 billion, according to Panigirtzoglou. Hence, relatively few large buy or sell orders could lead to significant price moves either way.

Bitcoin's three-month realized volatility, its level of actual price fluctuation over the past 90 days, stood at 92% on Sunday, the highest since June 9, 2020, according to Skew. Meanwhile, the three-month implied volatility, or investors' expectations of price swings over the next 90 days, was 94%.

At press time, bitcoin is trading near $54,070, representing a 5.7% drop over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk 20 data.

Disclosure

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.


Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.