JPMorgan analysts see $40,000 as a key bitcoin battleground that bullish traders need to retake in order for the cryptocurrency's meteoric rise to continue.
Greater input from the multibillion-dollar bitcoin trust owned by digital asset manager Grayscale Investments is needed to sustain prices above that key level, according to JPMorgan's strategists and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, its global market strategy head. The analysis also took into account demand for bitcoin futures. Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, CoinDesk's parent company.
The bearish outlook would likely be triggered by a bevy of traders exiting the market on a potential change in the short-term trend and a lack of further institutional flows, according to the report.
"The flow into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust would likely need to sustain its $100 million per day pace over the coming days and weeks for such a breakout to occur,” strategists said in a note to investors on Friday referring to a price breach above $40,000.
Grayscale announced on Saturday it had raised its largest single-day raise in the firm's existence, adding above $700 million to its family of products including bitcoin.
How long the digital asset manager can sustain those levels remains unclear.
The analysts said bitcoin is now in a similar position to November 2020 when the cryptocurrency was toying with a move toward $20,000. On Dec. 16, bitcoin did pass $20,000, which the JPMorgan analysts attributed to Grayscale's involvement in the market.
Traders “could propagate the past week’s correction,” JPMorgan's analysts also said, referring to the sharp over-20% drop in bitcoin's value on Jan. 10, before a partial recovery prompted by opportunists.
If bitcoin fails to retake $40,000, “momentum signals will naturally decay from here up till the end of March,” the analysts said in the report.
At press time, bitcoin was trading at $37,250, up 2% over 24 hours.
EDIT (13:45 UTC, Jan. 19 2021): Corrected use of a 2017 date in the fourth paragraph from bottom.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.
Learn more about Consensus 2023, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.