There's a degree of transparency in cryptocurrencies that doesn't exist in traditional markets like stocks and bonds: Thanks to data that's easily extracted from blockchains, everyone can see everyone else moving their money around.
That means traders can keep an eye on exchange wallets to gauge whether investors and crypto miners are getting their bitcoin into position for a possible sale – or taking balances down from the exchanges in anticipation of holding for the longer term.
The latter might be what's happening now, CoinDesk's Muyao Shen reported Monday. Total balances of bitcoin on major exchanges has hit its lowest levels since November 2018. It could be an indication of bullishness among bitcoin traders.
“There’s no reason to sell now," Mike Alfred, CEO of Digital Assets Data, told Shen in a phone interview. “Why would you be selling when you’re at the beginning of a wave of potential corporate treasuries and institutional investors coming in?”
Another interpretation, according to Arcane Research, is that traders are taking their bitcoin off exchanges to deploy them in the decentralized finance sector, known as DeFi. Juicy returns can be obtained from tokenizing crypto assets and depositing them as collateral in semi-automated, blockchain-based trading and lending platforms.
That might be another bullish sign.
"Bitcoin maximalists would decry the use of bitcoin on Ethereum, arguing that it isn’t 'real' bitcoin," David Derhy, an analyst for the cryptocurrency trading platform eToro, wrote Monday in an email. "I view this development as positive for the sector, as it highlights an evolution within the industry."
Whatever the case, it's all there to see.
Bitcoin's upward momentum is again running out of steam near the psychological resistance of $11,000.
The cryptocurrency clocked highs near $10,950 early Monday and is currently trading near $10,850.
The cryptocurrency's weekly chart MACD histogram, an indicator used to identify trend changes and trend strength, has dipped below zero for the first time since March, indicating a bearish shift in the broader trend.
Similarly, the 5- and 10-week averages have produced a bearish crossover. As such, bitcoin could face chart-driven selling pressure.
On the higher side, $11,000 is the level to beat for the bulls.
- Omkar Godbole
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