Bitcoin Chart Indicator Flips Bearish as Price Sees Weak Bounce From $9.4K

Bitcoin's daily money flow index has turned bearish for the first time since early January, supporting the case for further price losses.

AccessTimeIconFeb 21, 2020 at 11:15 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 12:20 p.m. UTC
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  • Bitcoin's (BTC) daily money flow index has turned bearish, supporting the case for a deeper price pullback put forward by Wednesday's bearish engulfing candle.
  • On the downside, support is seen at $9,400, a level that restricted downside in the previous two days. A violation there would expose the higher low created at $9,074 on Feb. 4.
  • A move back above a short-term moving average at $9,800 would weaken the bearish mood, while a bearish channel breakout on the four-hour chart is needed to put the bulls back into the driver's seat.

Bitcoin's lackluster recovery from price support around $9,400 is struggling to gather upside traction amid bearish developments on the short-term technical charts.

The top cryptocurrency by market value fell by 5.5 percent on Wednesday to register its biggest single-day drop in three months.

Sellers, however, failed to keep prices below the widely tracked 200-day moving average support on the four-hour chart (currently at $9,400). That level was defended again on Thursday.

So far, however, the repeated defense of that level has failed to yield a notable price bounce, leaving the cryptocurrency below the resistance of the five-day average at $9,750.

A significant recovery may remain elusive, as the daily chart's money flow index (MFI), a momentum indicator that incorporates both price and trading volumes, is suggesting increased selling pressure with a below-50 reading.

The MFI dropped below 50 on Thursday and is currently seen at 43.00, the lowest level since Jan. 2. As a result, the risks are skewed to the downside.

At press time, bitcoin is changing hands at $9,710 on Bitstamp and its global average price, as calculated by CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index, is seen at $9,721 – up 0.87 percent over 24 hours.

Daily and 4-hour charts
daily-and-4h-2

The MFI (above left) has found acceptance in bearish territory below 50, validating a major bearish engulfing candle created on Feb. 19. That candle also established a lower high (marked by arrow) at $10,300 – a sign of weakening bull momentum.

The five- and 10-day averages are trending south, also indicating a bearish setup. Notably, the cryptocurrency is struggling to penetrate the five-day average, as indicated by the upper wick attached to today's candle.

Further, bitcoin is trading within a descending bearish channel on the four-hour chart (above right). So, a deeper slide to $9,075 (Feb. 4 low) cannot be ruled out.

A sustained break above the five-day average at $9,755 would neutralize the bearish bias. That said, the market would only turn bullish if prices manage to exit the falling channel on the back of strong volumes. In that case, the recent high of $10,500 would likely be put to test.

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