• Bitcoin’s bounce from Monday’s three-month low of $7,715 is struggling to beat the 200-day moving average resistance, currently at $8,440.
  • The recovery rally lacks volume support and could be short lived. A rising wedge breakdown seen on the hourly chart favors a drop to levels below $8,000.
  • A close above Monday’s high of $8,368 is needed to weaken bearish pressures. A bullish close, if confirmed, could yield a break above $9,000.

Bitcoin is better bid on the first day of the fourth quarter, but the relief rally is struggling to gather traction above a key former support-turned-resistance.

The top cryptocurrency is currently changing hands at $8,330 on Bitstamp, representing a 7 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Prices hit a high of $8,519 earlier today. At that level, the cryptocurrency was up $804 or 10.4 percent from the 3.5-month low of $7,715 reached in the Asian trading hours on Monday.

A recovery rally was expected, as the cryptocurrency was looking oversold on Monday, having dropped by more than $2,000 last week.

So far, however, a sustained break above the 200-day moving average (MA) resistance at $8,440 has remained elusive.

The 200-day MA is widely considered a barometer of the long-term trend. The cryptocurrency is said to be in a bull market if it is charting higher lows above the key MA, while lower lows below the long-term average is taken as a sign of bear market.

Further, the average line proved a tough nut to crack on Saturday, after which a fresh wave of selling ended up pushing prices to lows near $7,700.

Put simply, the 200-day MA is a crucial resistance, which if breached, may invite buying pressure.

Moreover, a convincing break above the 200-day MA would strengthen the narrative put forward by the likes of popular twitter analyst Crypto Bitlord that BTC may have bottomed out near $7,700.

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While Crypto Bitlord is calling a bullish move to $9,000, market analyst Josh Rager is expecting consolidation.

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The outlook would turn bullish above $8,800, according to Rager. That said, a convincing break above $8,800 may not happen immediately, as technical studies are still biased bearish and the rally seen in the last 24 hours is lacking substance.

4-hour and hourly charts

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Bitcoin witnessed a double bottom breakout on the 4-hour chart in the Asian trading hours, opening doors for a rise to $8,900 (target as per the measured move method).

The breakout, however, lacked volume support. In fact, trading volumes have remained low throughout the price rise from $7,715 to $8,519. A low-volume recovery is often short-lived.

The hourly chart is reporting a rising wedge breakdown – a bearish reversal pattern that indicates the corrective rally has ended and prices could fall back below $8,000 in the next 24 hours.

The case for a rise to $8,900 would strengthen if a move above $8,500 is accompanied by a surge in buying volumes.

Daily chart

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Bitcoin is currently struggling to beat the 200-day MA resistance.

The cryptocurrency created a bullish outside bar candle yesterday, signaling seller exhaustion.

A short-term bullish reversal would be confirmed if prices print a UTC close above $8,368 today, validating Monday’s outside bar candle. That could yield a sustained move to $9,000.

However, the outlook as per the longer duration technical charts will remain bearish as long as prices are held below $9,097, as discussed yesterday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk Archives; charts by Trading View

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