- Bitcoin failed to capitalize on a bull breakout above $4,040 yesterday, but the short-term outlook remains bullish as the higher-lows pattern is still intact.
- A convincing break above the three-day chart resistance of $4,040 still looks likely and could be followed by a rally toward the recent high of $4,190.
- The immediate outlook would turn bearish if prices find acceptance below $3,920 (previous day's low). A bearish close, if confirmed, could yield a drop to $3,700–$3,658 (Feb. 27 low).
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped back from levels over $4,000, but the short-term outlook will remain bullish as long as prices are holding above key support at $3,920.
The crypto market leader jumped to a 25-day high of $4,055 yesterday, having secured a bullish UTC close above the psychological hurdle of $4,000 on Wednesday, going by Bitstamp data. The breakout above the crucial three-day chart resistance of $4,040, however, was short-lived with prices falling back to a five-day low of $3,920 before closing the day at $3,974.
Notably, the negative price action engulfed the trading range seen in the previous four days, which is widely considered an early sign of bull exhaustion.
That said, the path of least resistance is still to the higher side, as the bounce from lows near $3,920 has left the bullish higher lows pattern intact along the trendline connecting the Feb. 8 and Mar.4 lows.
For the immediate outlook to turn bearish, the engulfing price action seen yesterday needs a strong follow through in the form of a convincing break below $3,920.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,980, representing a 1.28 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.
On the daily chart, BTC created a bearish outside reversal candle yesterday as trading began on an optimistic note but ended with pessimism.
A bullish-to-bearish trend change, however, would be confirmed only if prices close below $3,920 (low of the bearish candle) today. A move below $3,920 would confirm a downside break of the ascending trendline and shift risk in favor of a deeper drop toward the Feb. 27 low of $3,658.
On the higher side, a break above $4,055 would reinforce the short-term bullish setup and could fuel a rally toward the recent high of $4,190.
The odds of a rally toward $4,235 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline) would strengthen if the current three-day candle closes (today) above $4,040, validating the bullish engulfing candle created in three days to March 16.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
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