• Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains bullish while prices are held above $3,658 (the low of the long-tailed doji created on Feb. 27).
  • A break above $4,000, however, could be preceded by a pullback to $3,750 if another rejection at a newfound resistance of $3,900 ends up breaching the bullish higher low of $3,826 on the hourly chart.
  • A UTC close below $3,658 would confirm a short-term bearish reversal, although that looks unlikely.

Bitcoin's (BTC) repeated failure to beat resistance at $3,900 is a slight cause of concern for the bulls.

Having bounced up strongly from the 100-day moving average (MA) support on Tuesday, bitcoin was expected to make a quick move toward the psychological hurdle of $4,000.

In the last two days, however, the bullish momentum faded near $3,900 – the high of the candle with long upper shadow created on Feb. 28.

Further, the spike to a 12-day high of $3,924 seen earlier today was short-lived with prices quickly falling back to lows near $3,860.

BTC's inability to force a convincing break above $3,900 may invite selling pressure. That said, the short-term outlook would turn bearish only if prices drop below the Feb. 27 low of $3,658.

As of writing, BTC is trading largely unchanged on the day at $3,880.

Hourly chart

BTC witnessed a symmetrical triangle breakout on the hourly chart at 07:00 UTC. The follow-through, however, was bearish with the following candle closing back inside the triangle pattern.

Still, the failed breakout has not done significant damage to the bullish view, as prices have again bounced up from the 50-hour moving average.

A deeper pullback to $3,750 could be seen if another failure at $3,900 is followed by a break below the bullish higher low of $3,826.

Daily chart

CoinDesk - Unknown

On the daily chart, BTC bounced strongly from the 100-day MA support on Tuesday, restoring the short-term bullish view put forward by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27.

The bullish outlook would be invalidated if prices see a UTC close below $3,658 (Feb. 27 low). That would expose levels below $3,500, although the drop could be short-lived as the longer duration indicators are flashing early signs of bull revival.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View 


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.

Investing in the Future of the Digital Economy
October 18-19 | Spring Studio, NYC