Sign Emerges That Falling Bitcoin Price Just Might Have a Floor
A long-term indicator looks to have been shoring up bitcoin's price over the last four months.
Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have built a base around a key moving average in the last four months, although, so far, it has not been able to produce a definitive bullish breakout.
Throughout 2018, the leading cryptocurrency has set lower price highs, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Despite the bearish setup, the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) has served as a strong floor since June. More importantly, the failure to beat the EMA support for four straight months indicates that the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 reached in December has likely run its course.
So, it seems safe to say that the stage has been set for the cryptocurrency to jump above the recent lower price high of $7,429 hit a month ago and confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
Even so, the bulls have been reluctant to push prices north of $6,800 in the last two weeks. Still, since BTC tends to perform well in the last three months of the calendar year, that may be about to change.
At press time, BTC is trading largely unchanged on the day at $6,585 on Bitfinex.
As seen on the monthly chart, BTC produced a minor rally to $8,500 in July, after finding support at the 21-month EMA in June.
Further, the sellers failed to penetrate the EMA support in August and September, establishing it as a key level to watch out for in the near-term.
Over on the daily chart, the 5-day and 10-day EMAs are flatlined, indicating that the bitcoin market is currently lacking a clear directional bias.
The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency finds acceptance above the trendline connecting the July 25 high and Sept. 5 high. As of writing, the trendline resistance is located at $6,802.
The bear failure, as seen in the monthly chart, does indicate scope for a break above the trendline hurdle in the near-term.
- BTC seems to have bottomed out around the 21-month EMA, currently located at $6,150.
- A UTC close above the falling trendline seen in the daily chart would open up upside toward $7,429 (September high). A high volume move above that level would add credence to BTC's repeated defense of the 21-month EMA and confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
- On the downside, a convincing move below the 21-month EMA will likely embolden the bears.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin chart image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.
Learn more about Consensus 2023, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.