Indicator Suggests Bitcoin's $8K Price Rally Could Be Overstretched

Bitcoin bulls could have a breather after 40 percent month-on-month rally.

Jul 24, 2018 at 11:00 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 8:12 a.m. UTC
CoinDesk Insights

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a bullish start to the week, but the momentum could wane in the next few days, technical studies indicate.

The leading cryptocurrency rose to a two-month high of $8,130 on Bitfinex today, having witnessed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout last week.

The 40 percent rally from the seven-month low of $5,755 reached on June 24 has put the bulls back in a commanding position. Hence, further gains could be on the cards, albeit after a brief pause or a price pullback as a key technical indicator is flashing overbought conditions.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $8,100 on Bitfinex.

Daily chart

Notably, the relative strength index (RSI), one of the most widely used momentum indicators, jumped above 70.00 (overbought zone) earlier today and is currently located at 74.56 – its highest level since December.

So, it could be said that bitcoin is at its most overbought level in seven months.

As a result, the cryptocurrency may find it hard to gain a foothold above the immediate resistance of $8,140 (pennant resistance) in the next few days and could see a minor price pullback.

That said, a technical correction, if any, will likely be short-lived as the other tools are biased towards the bulls. For instance, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are trending north, indicating a bullish setup.

Meanwhile, the short duration charts are also calling a further price rally.

4-hour chart

The broadening wedge breakout seen on the chart above indicates a continuation of the rally from the July 17 low of $6,740. Accordingly, the attention has now shifted to the significant price obstacle of the 200-day MA, currently located at $8,676.

View

  • BTC's break above $8,000 has bolstered the already bullish technical setup, however, overbought conditions could cap the upside around $8,150 over the next few days.
  • A pullback to ascending (bullish) 10-day MA, currently at $7,570 and seen sloping upwards to $7,700 in the next 48 hours, cannot be ruled out but will likely end up refueling the BTC freight train for a sustained move toward the 200-day MA of $8,676.
  • Only a daily close (as per UTC) below $7,221 (July 21 low) would abort the bullish view.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Steel spring image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

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