Bitcoin Eyes Bull Reversal As Volumes Spike From 36-Week Lows

Bitcoin is solidly bid at six-week highs and could soon witness a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Jul 16, 2018 at 9:00 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 8:10 a.m. UTC

Bitcoin is eyeing change of fortunes above $6,800, having convincingly scaled a key moving average hurdle earlier today.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at a six-day high of $6,600 on Bitfinex - up 3.44 percent on the day.

The cryptocurrency remained bid over the weekend and rose to $6,400 as expected despite low investor participation. For instance, prices rose above $6,300 on Saturday, but trading volumes fell to $2.92 billion, the lowest level since November 7, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, the solid move above the 20-day moving average (MA) resistance of $6,400 seen today is backed by a pick-up in trading volume.

As of writing, 24-hour trading volume stands at $4.64 billion - up more than 50 percent from the 36-week lows seen on Saturday. Thus, rally looks sustainable and could be extended further towards $6,838 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline resistance).

Daily chart

BTC's recovery from $6,080 (Thursday's low) and a rally to $6,600 has created a higher low (bullish setup) on the chart.

The relative strength index (RSI) is also biased toward the bulls (above 50.00).

So, prices look set to test the key resistance at $6,838 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline resistance). Essentially, BTC is now creating the right shoulders of the inverse head-and-shoulders bullish reversal pattern.

Still, there is merit in being cautious as the cryptocurrency looks overbought as per the short duration charts.

4-hour chart

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The relative strength index (RSI) is at the highest level since April 24, meaning the cryptocurrency is at its most overbought in nearly three months.

Hence, a  break above $6,838 might remain elusive for another 24-hours or could be short-lived for the time being.

View

  • BTC's corrective rally has gathered pace and prices could rise to $6,838 (neckline resistance) in the next day or two.
  • A close (as per UTC) above $6,838 would confirm a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change and would open the doors to $7,920 (target as per the measured height method).
  • Only a daily close (as per UTC) below $6,400 (20-day MA) would kill the odds of BTC rising to $6,838.
  • A break below $5,755 (June 24 low) would revive the bearish view.

Edit (12:00 UTC, July 16, 2018): This article was updated to reflect a sudden rise in prices soon after initial publication.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

via Shutterstock

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