Bitcoin's (BTC) price charts remain biased to the bears, but market positioning on a major exchange suggests a sustained break below $6,000 may remain elusive in short-term.
At press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $6,100 on Bitfinex, largely unchanged on a 24-hour basis, and technically speaking, BTC remains on the defensive as discussed yesterday.
So, going by the technicals alone, it seems safe to say that BTC is likely to find acceptance below the February low of $6,000 soon.
However, activity on Bitfinex, the fourth biggest cryptocurrency exchange by 24-hour trading volume, shows that BTC/USD shorts have been getting liquidated in recent days, while investors have been loading up on BTC/USD longs, creating upward pressure on price.
Thus, there is merit in the bears being cautious, as a corrective rally can't be ruled out.
The falling channel and downward sloping Bollinger Bands (standard deviation of +2, -2 on 20-day moving average) indicate that the bear grip on bitcoin is still intact.
The Chaikin money flow (CMF), an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure, remains below zero, indicating strong selling pressure.
The longer the CMF remains the remains in a zone (either above zero or below zero) the more consistent the sentiment. In BTC's case, bearish sentiment is quite strong as the CMF has been hovering in the negative territory for the fifth consecutive week.
BTC could well close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) in the next day or two, and maybe extend the decline from the May high of $9,990 towards $5,000 in the next few weeks.
BTC/USD longs rising
As mentioned above, BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex have increased by 16.5 percent since June 17, as seen in the chart above. This likely indicates that bargain hunters are finding BTC undervalued around $6,000 – unsurprising, perhaps, as the cryptocurrency is down 70 percent from the all-time record high of almost $20,000 in December.
BTC/USD shorts dropping
BTC/USD shorts have dropped 25 percent since Sunday. Interestingly, the charts saw a long-legged doji candle on the same day, indicating bearish exhaustion. Both are factors that may have helped BTC's defense of $6,000 amid the bearish technical setup.
- While the technical outlook is bearish, we are unable to rule out a corrective rally above the immediate resistance of $6,425, courtesy of the bullish market positioning seen on Bitfinex.
- The conflicting signals force us to call a neutral market.
- A daily close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) would boost the odds of a drop to falling channel support, currently seen at $5,300.
- On the higher side, a convincing move above $6,425 (April 1 low) would add credence to signs of a short-term bullish turnaround seen earlier this week and would open the doors to a stronger corrective rally towards $7,000.
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