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Bitcoin Price Recovery In Play If Key Support Holds

Bitcoin is still in recovery mode, but the bulls must keep prices above key support to maintain momentum.

Jun 15, 2018 at 10:10 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 8:03 a.m. UTC

Bitcoin (BTC) is still in recovery mode, but the bulls must keep prices above key support seen just below $6,500 to maintain momentum, the technical charts indicate.

The cryptocurrency clocked a high of $6,736 on Bitfinex yesterday amid signs of a bear breather. However, bargain hunters were short in supply and prices fell back below $6,600 at 01:00 UTC today. Bitcoin has spent a better part of the last seven hours trading in the narrow range of $6,550 to $6,620.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $6,590 – up 7.2 percent from Wednesday's 18-week low of $6,109.

While it is too early to call a bottom, the nascent recovery shows promise, with bitcoin holding well above the former support-turned-resistance of $6,425 (April 1 low).

As per the charts, though, an unexpected break below $6,480 could pour cold water on the optimism and signal a resumption of the sell-off.

Hourly chart

The chart shows BTC has created a bear flag – a bearish continuation pattern. A break below $6,480 (flag support) would mean the corrective rally from the recent low of $6,109 has ended and the bear market has resumed.

Such a bear flag breakdown, if confirmed, would allow a sell-off to $5,750 (target as per the measured height method, i.e. pole height subtracted from breakdown price).

That target looks feasible when viewed against the backdrop of bearish long-term technical setup. Further, the 7 percent recovery from the recent lows has lifted the relative strength index (RSI) well above oversold region (below 30.00) providing scope for further sell-off.

What's more, the RSI is teasing a break below the ascending trendline (bearish signal).

Clearly, the odds are high that corrective rally could fall apart below $6,480. Meanwhile, the upside is seen gathering traction if BTC finds acceptance above the immediate resistance of $6,619 (dotted yellow line in the hourly chart).

View

  • Bear flag breakdown (a move below $6,480) would imply resumption of the sell-off and could yield a drop to $5,750.
  • A daily close (as per UTC) below $6,000 (February low) would only bolster the already bearish long-term technicals and open up downside towards the $5,000 mark.
  • On the higher side, acceptance above $6,618 could bring a climb towards resistance located at $6,900 (June 11 high) and $7,000 (psychological mark).

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock

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