Following bitcoin's recent losses, a key long-term trend indicator is looking increasingly bearish.
Notably, the five-month moving average (MA) has rolled over in favor of the bears and looks set to cut the 10-month MA from above – a bearish crossover that hasn't been seen since June 2014.
If that occurs it could be a worrying signal for the long-term price outlook. Back then, following an identical crossover in June 2014, the cryptocurrency subsequently dropped by 70 percent (from $580 to $166) in the seven months leading up to January 2015.
This time around, the bearish crossover will likely occur at the turn of the month, if bitcoin extends the current decline towards the $7,000 mark, and would open the doors for a deeper sell-off towards the $5,000 mark.
Currently, the five-month MA is seen at $8,916 and the 10-month MA is located at $8,379, according to Bitfinex data. Meanwhile, bitcoin is changing hands at $7,820 – down almost 5 percent in the last 24 hours.
The observed lower-highs and lower-lows pattern (marked by circles) and the downward sloping 5-day and 10-day MAs indicate a bearish setup. The chart also shows a bearish crossover between the 10-day and 50-day MAs.
Further, the relative strength index (RSI) is below 50.00 (in the bearish territory), but holding well above 30.00 (oversold territory), indicating enough room for a sell-off towards $7,000.
Acceptance below the 50-week MA, currently seen at $7,620, would only bolster the already bearish daily chart technicals and increase the odds of the bearish five-month/10-month MA crossover.
The 50-week MA worked as a strong support in April, so a break below that level could yield a sharp sell-off.
- BTC risks deeper pullback towards $7,000. In such a case, the 5-month MA will cross the 10-month MA from above, signaling a bearish crossover and opening doors for a drop to $5,000.
- Bullish scenario: A solid rebound from the 50-week MA at $7,620 and a convincing break above $8,644 would signal a bullish reversal.
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