A plurality of respondents to a new survey from brokerage firm Triad Securities said they believe bitcoin is in a bubble that's primed to crash.
The survey was conducted earlier this month by New York-based Triad as well as Datatrek Research, garnering responses from 317 institutional traders. Of those, just over half work for buy-side firms, with roughly 10 percent and 8 percent coming from sell-side and service provider companies, respectively.
The results of the poll showed that over 39 percent of respondents indicated that they think "this is a bubble - it must crash." Twenty-seven percent said they think the price of bitcoin will continue to rise – albeit more slowly compared to recent moves – while about 16 percent struck a more bullish tone, calling for a doubling of the price within the next six months. Seventeen percent didn't offer an opinion on the topic.
That divided take was on further display in the data, as some 31 percent of respondents reported that they had actually purchased some bitcoin. An additional 36 percent said they have considered it purchasing some but haven't yet, while 30 percent said "no, never," according to Triad. About one-and-a-half percent of respondents indicated that they are unfamiliar with cryptocurrencies.
The data was drawn from a group that skewed heavily toward those over the age of 35, with more than half of those involved reporting that they were above 45 years or older. Roughly 20 percent of the respondents were 34 or younger.
Iffy on ICOs
Several of the survey questions pertained to initial coin offerings (ICOs), or sales of cryptographic data that can be used to bootstrap a new blockchain network.
As might be expected, relatively few of respondents – about 8 percent – said they have invested in token sales.
That said, 29 percent said they "have considered investing in them," though another 15 percent indicated that they would only do so in the event additional regulation comes into play.
The survey also offered some details on the factors that institutional traders would consider before investing in an ICO. When asked to choose three from a list of possible top considerations, respondents prioritized "founders/key employees", "total addressable market" and the overall type of token.
Survey image via Shutterstock
CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk offers all employees above a certain salary threshold, including journalists, stock options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.