Apple Pay is the next big thing that’s “freaking out” financial services companies right now, but, in the long term, bitcoin will prove to be the real innovation, Marc Andreessen has said.
With the Netscape anniversary in mind, Andreessen told Chang that he anticipates more change in the payments space in the next five years than there has been in the previous 20, and that there would be two major drivers of that change: Apple Pay and bitcoin.
“What we say from our [Andreessen Horowitz’s] standpoint is that, in the long run, bitcoin is by far the most innovative and radical thing,” he said, adding:
The chicken-and-egg problem
“[Apply Pay] is innovative, but in a way [it's] very consistent with the status quo. If anything, its big selling point is it doesn't require massive structural change.”
He went on to describe the dilemma that exists in today’s payments industry, maintaining that there is a network effects problem in that no one will use a new payments system until both the merchant and consumer sides of the industry embrace it fully.
“You have to get through the chicken-and-egg problem to get to the other side of universal adoption. Apple Pay is very cleverly calibrated to skip right through that […] It sort of plugs right into the existing system.”
Bitcoin is different. It’s the exact inverse of Apple Pay, according to Andreessen, but because of the same chicken-and-egg scenario, larger transaction volumes could be a long way off:
Betting on bitcoin
Venture capital isn’t a batting-average business, Andreessen went on, but rather a "slugging-percentage" business. He remains open to the prospect that bitcoin may or may not work. For every 10 bets he takes on startups, he assumes he’ll lose five – a typically venture capitalist approach to take.
“It’s not a question of how often you’re right,” he said. “It’s a question of when you’re right – how right are you?”
Rounding off the talk, Andreessen declared his confidence in the concept of cryptocurrency and the likelihood that it would become “vitally important”.
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