AUSTIN, Texas — Mike Novogratz is going to wear his luna (LUNA) tattoo into the next crypto supercycle as a mark of humility, and he expects that upturn to take place in the fourth quarter.

Speaking at CoinDesk’s Consensus 2022 conference, Novogratz said bitcoin (BTC) isn’t going to “trade well before the Fed flinches and takes its foot off the break,” though he does expect the world's most popular digital asset to bottom out before U.S. equities do.

“My hope is that by the fourth quarter, the economy will be slowing enough that the Fed says we are going to pause, and then you will see the next crypto cycle start,” he said. “Then bitcoin will break from equities and lead markets.”

"Rates are going to 5% in the U.S. I hope crypto can decouple," he added.

As for how Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and others might navigate the next bull market, Novogratz said to "fight the impulse to be so greedy." Those who got into luna early enough had an easy 300X return, he said, and that's just not reality in the markets. "When ecosystems go real fast, there’s a reason for it. Know what you are investing in. You don't get 18% for free."

Galaxy Digital is down 68% year-to-date, underperforming bitcoin, which is lower by 38%.