Coinbase’s Q3 Crypto Trading Volumes to Be Key for Investors, Analysts Say

The largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange has said investors should expect lower trading volume in the third quarter, given the decline in crypto prices during that period.

AccessTimeIconNov 8, 2021 at 8:29 p.m. UTC
Updated May 11, 2023 at 4:06 p.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

Coinbase Global Inc.’s (COIN) trading volumes and revenue will likely be the focus of investor attention as the cryptocurrency exchange gets set to report third quarter financial results Tuesday after the market close.

“Coinbase’s platform trading volumes are a key metric given the majority of company revenue comes from retail and institutional trading fees,” John Todaro, a research analyst at New York-based Needham & Co. who has a buy recommendation on the stock, told clients in a note.

  • Arca CIO on Crypto Outlook After FTX Collapse
    07:45
    Arca CIO on Crypto Outlook After FTX Collapse
  • eToro Consultant Talks Crypto Correlation With Nasdaq Ahead of Historically Bearish September
    02:33
    eToro Consultant Talks Crypto Correlation With Nasdaq Ahead of Historically Bearish September
  • Bitcoin Falls Below $30K as Bullish Momentum Wanes
    11:33
    Bitcoin Falls Below $30K as Bullish Momentum Wanes
  • FTX US Debuts Stock Trading in Push for Bigger Slice of US Retail Pie
    04:57
    FTX US Debuts Stock Trading in Push for Bigger Slice of US Retail Pie
  • Coinbase posted trading volume of $462 billion in the second quarter, its second ever as a public company, up from $335 billion in the first quarter. Mizuho Securities expects that figure to fall to about $315 billion in the third quarter.

    Coinbase warned in last quarter’s earnings report that monthly transacting users and trading volume would be lower in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, citing lower volume levels stemming from a drop in crypto asset prices in the quarter. “August month-to-date, retail [monthly transacting users] and trading volume levels have slightly improved compared to July levels but remain lower than earlier in the year,” Coinbase wrote. The company also slightly lowered its yearly forecast range for monthly active users to 5.5 million to 8 million from the previous range of 5.5 million to 9 million.

    What’s next?

    The recent jump in the price of bitcoin could aid Coinbase’s commissions, though Wall Street remains divided on Coinbase’s prospects moving forward. Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev wrote recently that Coinbase’s “over-reliance” on trading commissions leaves the firm exposed to long-term take rate compression and industry competition. Still, about two weeks ago, Dolev boosted his overall revenue estimates for Coinbase’s third quarter, citing higher bitcoin prices and increased volatility. Mizuho has a neutral recommendation on the shares.

    At least one analyst is urging investors to overlook quarterly trading fluctuations and focus on the larger industry trends.

    “Some of the near-term themes have similarities to HOOD [Robinhood] as trading engagement slowed in the quarter from a record first half, deflating some of the first-half enthusiasm,” JMP Securities’ Devin Ryan told clients in an early October research note. “This near-term focus misses the bigger story around the ongoing rapid evolution of the crypto economy, growing use cases for crypto and Coinbase’s value proposition,” Ryan added.

    Meanwhile, Coinbase said last week it was testing a no-fee trading subscription service for users, which could be discussed more on this quarter’s conference call as rivals, including Robinhood, offer commission-free crypto trading.

    Overall, analysts are calling for Coinbase to report $1.57 billion in revenues for the third quarter, down from $2.23 billion in the second quarter, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.73, down from $6.42 in the second quarter, according to FactSet.

    Coinbase shares were up about 5% to $354 on Monday and are up more than 40% from their reference price of $250. But they are still down from their opening trading price of $381.

    Disclosure

    Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

    CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

    Author placeholder image

    Michael Bellusci is CoinDesk's crypto reporter focused on public companies and digital asset firms.


    Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.



    Read more about