Coinbase Bears Doubt Stock Can Rise Even After Exchange Beats Estimates

It’s hard to see a favorable valuation argument for the stock given the company’s revenue is tethered to an asset class that has yet to show a sustainable everyday utility value, Goldman Sachs said.

AccessTimeIconAug 4, 2023 at 2:34 p.m. UTC
Updated Aug 4, 2023 at 5:55 p.m. UTC

Coinbase (COIN) failed to assuage analysts’ long-term concerns even after the crypto exchange reported second-quarter results that beat estimates.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan and Barclays all noted the beat, but expressed caution over growth prospects.

“Ultimately, we struggle to see a favorable valuation argument for the stock given that the company’s revenue base is tethered to an asset class that has yet to show a sustainable everyday utility value, as well as the significant levels of stock based comp, despite being profitable on an adjusted basis,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Will Nance wrote. “Until we see evidence of mass adoption of crypto for everyday utility, we believe fundamentals will remain challenged."

The bank maintained its sell rating on the shares, but increased its 12-month price target to $51 from $45. The stock was down 0.3% to $90.48 in early Nasdaq trading.

“While some 2Q metrics were positive and the 3Q outlook contained no surprises, the print did little to address critical questions around retail volumes and revenue diversification,” Bank of America said. It rates the stock at underperform. It left its price target unchanged at $58.

JPMorgan, with a neutral rating, raised its price target to $64 from $61. The bank said the significant beat was driven by higher-than-expected retail transaction fees and “well-controlled” expenses.

Still, volume was underwhelming in the second quarter with the third quarter tracking worse, and Coinbase appears to be losing market share to competitors Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Block (SQ), JPMorgan said in a report. The bank estimates that staking revenue will grow to around $97 million in the third quarter given the higher ether (ETH) yield seen in July, the increase in ETH staked and the greater number of validators.

Regarding the lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “management struck a strong tone as they think they can win” Barclays said. It rates the stock at underweight and maintained a price target of $70, saying second-quarter earnings beat estimates because of a higher take on retail transactions and lower operating costs.

Late on Thursday, Coinbase reported second-quarter revenue of $708 million and a loss of 42 cents a share. Analysts expected revenue of $628 million and a loss of 76 cents a share.

Edited by Sheldon Reback.


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