Bitcoin rose for the first time in three days as traders looked past Friday’s record $6 billion expiration of option contracts to a stronger market next week as April begins.

“Returns after prior bitcoin options expiration dates have tended to be positive," David Grider, strategist at Fundstrat, told clients in an email. "The market is calm based on bitcoin VIX [a volatility index] falling, with room to fall further.”

BTC was changing hands at roughly $52,700 as of 12:03 UTC (8:04 a.m. ET), up 2.9% on the day.

  • An oversold signal on Thursday preceded in a near 8% rise in bitcoin (see chart). The next level of resistance is around $55,000-$56,000 which could limit upside moves.
  • Previous oversold signals on the hourly relative strength index (RSI) resulted in 5%-8% price recoveries. However, sellers have been active at key resistance levels this month.
  • Bitcoin’s uptrend continues to weaken after breaking below trend support on the four-hour chart.
  • The hourly chart remains in a downtrend defined by lower price highs as traders continue to take profit from intraday recoveries.
  • So far, buyers are defending support around $50,000. Additional selling pressure could stabilize around lower support at $42,000.
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On the fundamental side, uncertainty over vaccine rollouts across Europe, renewed lockdowns, and the underperformance of Asian equities casted a shadow over risk assets this month.

Elsewhere in the cryptocurrency universe, lending markets are heating up after BlockFi cut rates. “There is simply too much BTC supply in search of yield relative to institutional demand for that BTC,” wrote Matthew Ballensweig, head of lending at Genesis Trading, in a March 24 tweet. “There are limited ways to deploy BTC right now, and thus the glorified 4%-6% yields on BTC are contracting fast.”

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